Football · Canada Premier League · 14/09, 00:00

Prediction: Pacific FC (CA) vs Cavalry FC

Team pages: Pacific FC (CA) · Cavalry FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Pacific FC (CA)1.13

Cavalry FC2.06

1X2

19% 23% 57%

Pacific FC (CA) Draw Cavalry FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pacific FC (CA) 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLWDD

Cavalry FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Pacific FC (CA) 1–1–4 Cavalry FC (6 last)

Cavalry FC3-0Pacific FC (CA)
Pacific FC (CA)1-3Cavalry FC
Pacific FC (CA)1-2Cavalry FC
Pacific FC (CA)3-3Cavalry FC
Pacific FC (CA)1-0Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC1-0Pacific FC (CA)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pacific FC (CA) 1427 · Cavalry FC 1604

	Pacific FC (CA)	Draw	Cavalry FC
Our model	19%	23%	58%
Market	19%	24%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1427 vs 1604).
H2H favours Cavalry FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pacific FC (CA)	Cavalry FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	2.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
X	4.20 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.91
2	1.42 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.65 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +4’	5.75	4.20	1.42
07:19 +21’	4.75▼	3.75▼	1.55▲
20:16 +3’	4.75	3.75	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +4’	4.05	3.73	1.68
09:25 +58’	4.17▲	3.83▲	1.69▲
14:21 +93’	4.51▲	3.95▲	1.62▼
16:16 +153’	4.54▲	3.96▲	1.61▼
06:16 +85’	4.61▲	3.99▲	1.60▼
07:01 +112’	4.53▼	3.90▼	1.63▲
22:12 +44’	4.36▼	3.90	1.65▲
00:28 +12’	4.37▲	3.91▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pacific FC (CA) 1–1–4 Cavalry FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Pacific FC (CA)
10/05/26 Canada Championships	Pacific FC (CA)	1-3 HT 0-1	Cavalry FC
06/04/26 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	1-2 HT 0-1	Cavalry FC
06/10/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	3-3 HT 1-1	Cavalry FC
05/08/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	1-0 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
23/06/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Pacific FC (CA)

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	20	14	4	2	40	12	46
2	Forge FC	20	13	3	4	30	15	42
3	Atletico Ottawa	21	10	4	7	34	34	34
4	Vancouver FC	21	9	3	9	29	25	30
5	Supra du Quebec	20	6	4	10	29	36	22
6	HFX Wanderers	21	5	5	11	29	37	20
7	Inter Toronto	19	4	8	7	26	41	20
8	Pacific FC (CA)	20	1	7	12	25	42	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pacific FC (CA)	Cavalry FC
Inter Toronto	3-3 D	5-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	0-0 D	3-1 W
HFX Wanderers	4-3 W	3-1 W
Forge FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Vancouver FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Supra du Quebec	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pacific FC (CA)

LLLLDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	3-3	3	10	D
05/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-1	4-3	3	3	W
23/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
26/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	2-3	8	5	L
06/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
26/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-2	2-5	4	2	L

Cavalry FC

WDLWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
29/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
22/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
09/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
25/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
04/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pacific FC (CA) vs Cavalry FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cavalry FC win (57%). Probabilities: Pacific FC (CA) 19%, draw 23%, Cavalry FC 57%.

How many goals are expected in Pacific FC (CA) vs Cavalry FC?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Pacific FC (CA) 1.13 · Cavalry FC 2.06), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pacific FC (CA) vs Cavalry FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.