Football · Canada Premier League · 05/09, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Pacific FC (CA)

Team pages: Atletico Ottawa · Pacific FC (CA)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Atletico Ottawa2.31

Pacific FC (CA)1.25

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Atletico Ottawa Draw Pacific FC (CA)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Ottawa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWWLW

Pacific FC (CA) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Ottawa 5–1–0 Pacific FC (CA) (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa3-2Pacific FC (CA)
Pacific FC (CA)2-2Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-0Pacific FC (CA)
Pacific FC (CA)0-2Atletico Ottawa
Pacific FC (CA)0-1Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa3-1Pacific FC (CA)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1528 · Pacific FC (CA) 1433

	Atletico Ottawa	Draw	Pacific FC (CA)
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1528 vs 1433).
H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Ottawa	Pacific FC (CA)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +3’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 5–1–0 Pacific FC (CA)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	3-2 HT 1-0	Pacific FC (CA)
31/05/26 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	2-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
07/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-0 HT 0-0	Pacific FC (CA)
27/07/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
08/06/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Ottawa
03/05/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	3-1 HT 0-1	Pacific FC (CA)

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	19	13	4	2	37	11	43
2	Forge FC	19	13	2	4	29	14	41
3	Atletico Ottawa	20	10	3	7	34	34	33
4	Vancouver FC	20	8	3	9	26	23	27
5	Supra du Quebec	19	6	4	9	27	33	22
6	HFX Wanderers	20	5	5	10	28	34	20
7	Inter Toronto	17	4	6	7	22	37	18
8	Pacific FC (CA)	18	1	5	12	22	39	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Ottawa	Pacific FC (CA)
Inter Toronto	2-1 W	1-1 D
Vancouver FC	4-0 W	1-1 D
Supra du Quebec	2-1 W	1-2 L
HFX Wanderers	2-1 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Ottawa

WLDWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
02/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	6	5	L
26/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
04/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
01/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W

Pacific FC (CA)

DLLLLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-1	4-3	3	3	W
23/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
26/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	2-3	8	5	L
06/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
26/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-2	2-5	4	2	L
15/06	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
07/06	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Pacific FC (CA)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Ottawa win (60%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 60%, draw 22%, Pacific FC (CA) 18%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Pacific FC (CA)?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Atletico Ottawa 2.31 · Pacific FC (CA) 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Pacific FC (CA)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.