Football · Canada Premier League · 07/09, 21:00

Prediction: HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC

Team pages: HFX Wanderers · Cavalry FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

HFX Wanderers1.16

Cavalry FC1.91

1X2

22% 24% 54%

HFX Wanderers Draw Cavalry FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Cavalry FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

HFX Wanderers 0–3–3 Cavalry FC (6 last)

Cavalry FC1-1HFX Wanderers
Cavalry FC2-0HFX Wanderers
Cavalry FC3-1HFX Wanderers
Cavalry FC0-0HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-1Cavalry FC
HFX Wanderers0-3Cavalry FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1448 · Cavalry FC 1580

	HFX Wanderers	Draw	Cavalry FC
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1448 vs 1580).
H2H favours Cavalry FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HFX Wanderers	Cavalry FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.75

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +5’	4.10	3.75	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 0–3–3 Cavalry FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	1-1 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
07/06/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	2-0 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
13/09/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	3-1 HT 1-0	HFX Wanderers
09/08/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	0-0 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
14/06/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-1 HT 1-0	Cavalry FC
10/05/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	0-3 HT 0-1	Cavalry FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	19	13	4	2	37	11	43
2	Forge FC	19	13	2	4	29	14	41
3	Atletico Ottawa	20	10	3	7	34	34	33
4	Vancouver FC	20	8	3	9	26	23	27
5	Supra du Quebec	19	6	4	9	27	33	22
6	HFX Wanderers	20	5	5	10	28	34	20
7	Inter Toronto	17	4	6	7	22	37	18
8	Pacific FC (CA)	18	1	5	12	22	39	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HFX Wanderers	Cavalry FC
Vancouver FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Inter Toronto	3-4 L	5-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	1-2 L	3-1 W
Forge FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Supra du Quebec	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HFX Wanderers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L
08/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
25/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	6	2	L
18/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
06/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
01/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	8	2	L
26/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	2-1	5-2	10	2	W

Cavalry FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
22/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
09/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
25/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
04/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	5-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cavalry FC win (54%). Probabilities: HFX Wanderers 22%, draw 24%, Cavalry FC 54%.

How many goals are expected in HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC?

The model expects 3.07 goals (HFX Wanderers 1.16 · Cavalry FC 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.