Football · Canada Premier League · 22/08, 20:00

Prediction: HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC

Team pages: HFX Wanderers · Vancouver FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

HFX Wanderers1.25

Vancouver FC1.48

1X2

31% 27% 42%

HFX Wanderers Draw Vancouver FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

HFX Wanderers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDLDLL

Vancouver FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWWWD

Head-to-head

HFX Wanderers 4–2 Vancouver FC (6 last)

HFX Wanderers1-0Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers
Vancouver FC3-1HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-2Vancouver FC
HFX Wanderers1-0Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-2HFX Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1462 · Vancouver FC 1530

	HFX Wanderers	Draw	Vancouver FC
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vancouver FC (rating 1462 vs 1530).
H2H favours HFX Wanderers: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HFX Wanderers	Vancouver FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +3’	2.88	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 4–0–2 Vancouver FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver FC
05/04/26 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-1 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
29/09/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	3-1 HT 2-0	HFX Wanderers
04/08/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-2 HT 0-1	Vancouver FC
21/06/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver FC
18/05/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-2 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers

Standings · Canada Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	17	11	4	2	33	10	37
2	Forge FC	16	11	2	3	24	11	35
3	Vancouver FC	17	8	3	6	26	17	27
4	Atletico Ottawa	17	8	3	6	27	30	27
5	Supra du Quebec	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
6	HFX Wanderers	18	4	5	9	24	30	17
7	Inter Toronto	15	4	5	6	20	34	17
8	Pacific FC (CA)	16	0	5	11	18	34	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HFX Wanderers	Vancouver FC
Inter Toronto	3-4 L	4-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	1-2 L	3-1 W
Forge FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Supra du Quebec	2-3 L	5-1 W
Cavalry FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Pacific FC (CA)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

HFX Wanderers

LLWLWDLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L
08/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
25/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	6	2	L
18/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
06/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
01/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	8	2	L
26/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	2-1	5-2	10	2	W
11/06	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
07/06	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	5	L

Vancouver FC

WLWLLWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
08/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
02/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-0	3-1	3	5	W
25/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
18/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	5-1	6	3	W
13/07	CF Montreal Canada Championships	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
09/07	CF Montreal Canada Championships	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
05/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	4-0	4-0	2	3	W
01/07	Forge FC Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	1	2	L
15/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver FC win (42%). Probabilities: HFX Wanderers 31%, draw 27%, Vancouver FC 42%.

How many goals are expected in HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?

The model expects 2.72 goals (HFX Wanderers 1.25 · Vancouver FC 1.48), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.