Football · Canada Premier League · 31/08, 00:00

Prediction: Pacific FC (CA) vs HFX Wanderers

Team pages: Pacific FC (CA) · HFX Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Pacific FC (CA)1.43

HFX Wanderers1.7

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Pacific FC (CA) Draw HFX Wanderers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pacific FC (CA) 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLLDDL

HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Pacific FC (CA) 1–2–3 HFX Wanderers (6 last)

Pacific FC (CA)1-2HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers5-2Pacific FC (CA)
HFX Wanderers2-2Pacific FC (CA)
HFX Wanderers3-0Pacific FC (CA)
Pacific FC (CA)2-2HFX Wanderers
Pacific FC (CA)3-2HFX Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pacific FC (CA) 1421 · HFX Wanderers 1475

	Pacific FC (CA)	Draw	HFX Wanderers
Our model	31%	26%	43%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HFX Wanderers (rating 1421 vs 1475).
H2H favours HFX Wanderers: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pacific FC (CA)	HFX Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	2.20 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.12

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +2’	2.70	3.40	2.20
01:27 +1’	2.88▲	3.40	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:33 +1’	3.11	3.54	2.05
11:41 +1’	2.81▼	3.58▲	2.19▲
12:50	2.74▼	3.57▼	2.24▲
15:12	2.61▼	3.58▲	2.30▲
16:32 +1’	2.42▼	3.55▼	2.36▲
18:33 +2’	2.78▲	3.75▲	2.12▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pacific FC (CA) 1–2–3 HFX Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/26 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	1-2 HT 0-1	HFX Wanderers
26/06/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	5-2 HT 2-1	Pacific FC (CA)
18/04/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	2-2 HT 0-1	Pacific FC (CA)
20/09/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	3-0 HT 0-0	Pacific FC (CA)
17/08/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	2-2 HT 2-2	HFX Wanderers
13/07/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	3-2 HT 2-2	HFX Wanderers

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	18	13	2	3	29	13	41
2	Cavalry FC	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
3	Atletico Ottawa	19	9	3	7	32	33	30
4	Vancouver FC	19	8	3	8	26	22	27
5	HFX Wanderers	19	5	5	9	25	30	20
6	Supra du Quebec	18	5	4	9	26	33	19
7	Inter Toronto	16	4	6	6	21	35	18
8	Pacific FC (CA)	17	0	5	12	18	36	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pacific FC (CA)	HFX Wanderers
Forge FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Vancouver FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Inter Toronto	1-1 D	3-4 L
Supra du Quebec	1-2 L	2-3 L
Atletico Ottawa	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HFX Wanderers (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pacific FC (CA)

DDLLLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
26/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	2-3	8	5	L
06/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
26/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-2	2-5	4	2	L
15/06	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
07/06	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
31/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	4	D

HFX Wanderers

LWLWDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L
08/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
25/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	6	2	L
18/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
06/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
01/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	8	2	L
26/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	2-1	5-2	10	2	W
11/06	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pacific FC (CA) vs HFX Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HFX Wanderers win (43%). Probabilities: Pacific FC (CA) 31%, draw 26%, HFX Wanderers 43%.

How many goals are expected in Pacific FC (CA) vs HFX Wanderers?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Pacific FC (CA) 1.43 · HFX Wanderers 1.7), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pacific FC (CA) vs HFX Wanderers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.