Football · Canada Premier League · 08/08, 01:00

Prediction: Forge FC vs Vancouver FC

Team pages: Forge FC · Vancouver FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Forge FC1.71

Vancouver FC0.89

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Forge FC Draw Vancouver FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Forge FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Vancouver FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Forge FC 5–1–0 Vancouver FC (6 last)

Forge FC3-2Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-1Forge FC
Forge FC1-1Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-1Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-2Forge FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forge FC 1594 · Vancouver FC 1515

	Forge FC	Draw	Vancouver FC
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1594 vs 1515).
H2H favours Forge FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forge FC	Vancouver FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +1’	1.60	3.60	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 5–1–0 Vancouver FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	3-2 HT 0-2	Vancouver FC
13/04/26 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Forge FC
04/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC
23/08/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Forge FC
05/07/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC
15/06/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Forge FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	14	11	2	1	23	8	35
2	Cavalry FC	15	10	3	2	30	8	33
3	Vancouver FC	15	7	2	6	24	16	23
4	Atletico Ottawa	15	6	3	6	23	28	21
5	Supra du Quebec	14	5	2	7	21	26	17
6	HFX Wanderers	16	4	5	7	20	24	17
7	Inter Toronto	13	3	4	6	15	30	13
8	Pacific FC (CA)	14	0	3	11	16	32	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forge FC	Vancouver FC
HFX Wanderers	0-0 D	0-1 L
Inter Toronto	3-1 W	4-0 W
Supra du Quebec	2-1 W	5-1 W
Cavalry FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Forge FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
26/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	3-1	9	5	W
12/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	3-2	7	2	W
11/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	4-1	4	3	W
31/05	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
24/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	3	L

Vancouver FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-0	3-1	3	5	W
25/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
18/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	5-1	6	3	W
13/07	CF Montreal Canada Championships	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
09/07	CF Montreal Canada Championships	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
05/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	4-0	4-0	2	3	W
01/07	Forge FC Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	1	2	L
15/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	10	2	W
06/06	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
30/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forge FC vs Vancouver FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forge FC win (56%). Probabilities: Forge FC 56%, draw 25%, Vancouver FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Forge FC vs Vancouver FC?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Forge FC 1.71 · Vancouver FC 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Forge FC vs Vancouver FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.