Football · Canada Premier League · 02/08, 00:00

Prediction: Vancouver FC vs Atletico Ottawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Vancouver FC1.66

Atletico Ottawa1.3

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Vancouver FC Draw Atletico Ottawa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Ottawa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vancouver FC 1–2–3 Atletico Ottawa (6 last)

Vancouver FC2-1Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Vancouver FC
Atletico Ottawa0-0Vancouver FC
Atletico Ottawa1-0Vancouver FC
Atletico Ottawa1-0Vancouver FC
Atletico Ottawa3-1Vancouver FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver FC 1511 · Atletico Ottawa 1521

	Vancouver FC	Draw	Atletico Ottawa
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver FC	Atletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +2’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver FC 1–2–3 Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Ottawa
26/04/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 0-0	Vancouver FC
12/10/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	0-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver FC
19/09/25 Canada Championships	Atletico Ottawa	1-0 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC
19/09/25 Canada Championships	Atletico Ottawa	1-0 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC
31/08/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	3-1 HT 2-1	Vancouver FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	13	11	1	1	23	8	34
2	Cavalry FC	13	8	3	2	23	7	27
3	Atletico Ottawa	14	6	3	5	22	25	21
4	Vancouver FC	14	6	2	6	21	15	20
5	HFX Wanderers	15	4	4	7	20	24	16
6	Supra du Quebec	12	4	2	6	18	23	14
7	Inter Toronto	12	3	4	5	15	25	13
8	Pacific FC (CA)	13	0	3	10	15	30	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver FC	Atletico Ottawa
Cavalry FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
Supra du Quebec	5-1 W	1-3 L
Inter Toronto	4-0 W	1-1 D
Forge FC	2-3 L	2-1 W
Pacific FC (CA)	2-1 W	3-2 W
HFX Wanderers	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vancouver FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
18/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	5-1	6	3	W
13/07	CF Montreal Canada Championships	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
09/07	CF Montreal Canada Championships	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
05/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	4-0	4-0	2	3	W
01/07	Forge FC Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	1	2	L
15/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	10	2	W
06/06	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
30/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	9	4	D

Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
09/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Championships	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
04/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
01/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
10/06	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-3	5-3	7	0	W
06/06	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
31/05	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
24/05	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver FC win (45%). Probabilities: Vancouver FC 45%, draw 26%, Atletico Ottawa 29%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Vancouver FC 1.66 · Atletico Ottawa 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.