Football · Canada Premier League · 03/08, 00:00

Prediction: HFX Wanderers vs Forge FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

HFX Wanderers1.03

Forge FC1.76

1X2

21% 25% 54%

HFX Wanderers Draw Forge FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Forge FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

HFX Wanderers 0–6 Forge FC (6 last)

Forge FC1-0HFX Wanderers
Forge FC4-0HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-3Forge FC
Forge FC1-0HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-2Forge FC
Forge FC2-1HFX Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1450 · Forge FC 1613

	HFX Wanderers	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	21%	26%	54%
Market	21%	25%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1450 vs 1613).
H2H favours Forge FC: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HFX Wanderers	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.60

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +3’	4.20	3.60	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 0–0–6 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-0 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
09/05/26 Canada Championships	Forge FC	4-0 HT 2-0	HFX Wanderers
02/05/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-3 HT 0-1	Forge FC
06/09/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-0 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
26/07/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-2 HT 1-1	Forge FC
08/06/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-1 HT 1-0	HFX Wanderers

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	13	11	1	1	23	8	34
2	Cavalry FC	13	8	3	2	23	7	27
3	Atletico Ottawa	14	6	3	5	22	25	21
4	Vancouver FC	14	6	2	6	21	15	20
5	HFX Wanderers	15	4	4	7	20	24	16
6	Supra du Quebec	12	4	2	6	18	23	14
7	Inter Toronto	12	3	4	5	15	25	13
8	Pacific FC (CA)	13	0	3	10	15	30	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HFX Wanderers	Forge FC
Supra du Quebec	2-3 L	2-1 W
Cavalry FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	1-3 L	1-2 L
Vancouver FC	1-0 W	3-2 W
Inter Toronto	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Forge FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

HFX Wanderers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	6	2	L
18/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
06/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
01/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	8	2	L
26/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	2-1	5-2	10	2	W
11/06	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
07/06	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
30/05	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/05	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Forge FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	3-1	9	5	W
12/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	3-2	7	2	W
11/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	4-1	4	3	W
31/05	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
24/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
13/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HFX Wanderers vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forge FC win (54%). Probabilities: HFX Wanderers 21%, draw 25%, Forge FC 54%.

How many goals are expected in HFX Wanderers vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (HFX Wanderers 1.03 · Forge FC 1.76), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.