Football · Canada Premier League · 26/07, 23:00

Prediction: Inter Toronto vs Forge FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Inter Toronto0.96

Forge FC1.86

1X2

18% 25% 57%

Inter Toronto Draw Forge FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Inter Toronto 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWDLLLLD

Forge FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Inter Toronto 0–2–4 Forge FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Inter Toronto 1439 · Forge FC 1611

	Inter Toronto	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	18%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1439 vs 1611).
H2H favours Forge FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Inter Toronto	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.60

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:23 +1’	5.00	3.60	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter Toronto 0–2–4 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Canada Premier League	Inter Toronto	1-4 HT 0-2	Forge FC
18/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Inter Toronto
09/08/25 Canada Premier League	Inter Toronto	1-2 HT 1-1	Forge FC
29/06/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-2 HT 1-2	Inter Toronto
27/04/25 Canada Premier League	Inter Toronto	2-2 HT 2-2	Forge FC
28/09/24 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Inter Toronto

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	12	10	1	1	20	7	31
2	Cavalry FC	12	8	3	1	23	6	27
3	Atletico Ottawa	13	5	3	5	19	23	18
4	Vancouver FC	13	5	2	6	20	15	17
5	HFX Wanderers	14	4	4	6	18	21	16
6	Inter Toronto	11	3	4	4	14	22	13
7	Supra du Quebec	11	3	2	6	15	21	11
8	Pacific FC (CA)	12	0	3	9	13	27	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Inter Toronto	Forge FC
Atletico Ottawa	1-1 D	1-2 L
Vancouver FC	0-4 L	3-2 W
Cavalry FC	1-5 L	1-0 W
Supra du Quebec	1-3 L	2-1 W
HFX Wanderers	1-1 D	1-0 W
CS Saint-Laurent	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Forge FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Inter Toronto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
05/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-4	0-4	4	3	L
11/06	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-5	2	3	L
07/06	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-4	2	3	L
30/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
23/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
10/05	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
02/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	4-1	3	5	W
25/04	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	6	D

Forge FC

WWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	3-2	7	2	W
11/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	4-1	4	3	W
31/05	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
24/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
13/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
09/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Championships	2-0	4-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Inter Toronto vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forge FC win (57%). Probabilities: Inter Toronto 18%, draw 25%, Forge FC 57%.

How many goals are expected in Inter Toronto vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Inter Toronto 0.96 · Forge FC 1.86), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Inter Toronto vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.