Football · Brazil Serie B · 15/09, 00:30

Prediction: America MG vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: America MG · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

America MG1.48

Sao Bernardo SP1.22

1X2

41% 29% 29%

America MG Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLWLW

Sao Bernardo SP 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDDLWL

Head-to-head

America MG 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP (1 last)

Sao Bernardo SP1-1America MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America MG 1468 · Sao Bernardo SP 1478

	America MG	Draw	Sao Bernardo SP
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.6 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.32
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.23 ★
2	3.00 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +1’	2.35	3.10	3.00
04:20 +38’	2.40▲	3.10	3.10▲
08:57 +5’	2.30▼	3.10	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +51’	2.32	3.11	3.20
01:42 +112’	2.34▲	3.14▲	3.23▲
07:10 +37’	2.34	3.15▲	3.23
21:26 +59’	2.31▼	3.23▲	3.20▼
09:55 +47’	2.32▲	3.23	3.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 HT 0-1	America MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Sao Bernardo SP
Nautico	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
Athletic Club MG	1-3 L	1-2 L
Botafogo SP	1-2 L	0-1 L
Goias	1-0 W	1-2 L
Avai	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ceara	1-1 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: America MG (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

DLWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Sao Bernardo SP

DLLWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
23/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
20/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
08/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
26/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-4	10	3	L
24/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America MG win (41%). Probabilities: America MG 41%, draw 29%, Sao Bernardo SP 29%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.7 goals (America MG 1.48 · Sao Bernardo SP 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.