Football · Brazil Serie B · 22/09, 00:30

Prediction: Criciuma vs Operario PR

Team pages: Criciuma · Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Criciuma1.59

Operario PR0.77

1X2

56% 27% 17%

Criciuma Draw Operario PR

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Criciuma 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLLWLL

Operario PR 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDWWD

Head-to-head

Criciuma 1–1–4 Operario PR (6 last)

Operario PR1-1Criciuma
Operario PR1-0Criciuma
Criciuma1-2Operario PR
Criciuma2-0Operario PR
Operario PR2-0Criciuma
Operario PR1-0Criciuma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Criciuma 1475 · Operario PR 1492

	Criciuma	Draw	Operario PR
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Operario PR: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Criciuma	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.2	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.72 ★
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	4.75 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:41 +2’	1.73	3.30	4.75
09:49 +7’	1.67▼	3.40▲	5.25▲
04:34 +7’	1.67	3.50▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:44 +15’	1.78	3.38	4.93
09:41 +14’	1.70▼	3.49▲	5.37▲
15:29 +2’	1.70▲	3.48▼	5.36▼
15:37 +292’	1.72▲	3.45▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Criciuma 1–1–4 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-1 HT 0-0	Criciuma
02/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	Criciuma
05/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-2 HT 1-1	Operario PR
18/08/22 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	2-0 HT 1-0	Operario PR
07/05/22 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-0 HT 2-0	Criciuma
06/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	Criciuma

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
3	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
4	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
11	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
12	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
13	Goias	28	11	6	11	28	34	39
14	Nautico	28	10	8	10	35	33	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	28	8	6	14	29	36	30
18	Londrina	28	7	7	14	38	39	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	28	2	4	22	16	62	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Criciuma	Operario PR
Atletico GO	0-4 L	1-3 L
Cuiaba	2-0 W	0-1 L
CRB	1-2 L	3-0 W
Fortaleza	0-2 L	1-1 D
Nautico	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Criciuma

WDLWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	5	6	L
09/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
05/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
20/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
15/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
09/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
26/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Operario PR

WLLLLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
10/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	4	W
06/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	3	12	W
01/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
23/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
08/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
28/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Criciuma vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Criciuma win (56%). Probabilities: Criciuma 56%, draw 27%, Operario PR 17%.

How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Criciuma 1.59 · Operario PR 0.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.