Football · Brazil Serie B · 20/09, 23:30

Prediction: Londrina vs Fortaleza

Team pages: Londrina · Fortaleza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Londrina1.11

Fortaleza1.18

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Londrina Draw Fortaleza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Londrina 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDLWW

Fortaleza 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWDWWD

Head-to-head

Londrina 0–1–2 Fortaleza (3 last)

Fortaleza3-0Londrina
Fortaleza2-1Londrina
Londrina1-1Fortaleza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Londrina 1467 · Fortaleza 1548

	Londrina	Draw	Fortaleza
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	33%	31%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1467 vs 1548).
H2H favours Fortaleza: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Londrina	Fortaleza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 06:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.90▼	Pinn 2.94
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.08 ★
2	2.38 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.64

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:33 +8’	3.00	3.00	2.38
17:53 +5’	3.10▲	3.00	2.40▲
03:40 +3’	3.10	3.00	2.50▲
05:31 +25’	2.90▼	3.00	2.63▲
09:48 +3’	3.00▲	3.00	2.60▼
15:22 +2’	3.00	3.00	2.55▼
07:53 +9’	3.00	3.00	2.60▲
06:14 +4’	2.90▼	3.00	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:47 +9’	3.19	2.99	2.46
15:21 +5’	2.90▼	3.00▲	2.66▲
20:56 +66’	2.93▲	3.03▲	2.61▼
23:31 +35’	2.88▼	3.03	2.65▲
15:23	3.01▲	3.03	2.55▼
07:04 +58’	2.89▼	3.03	2.64▲
19:48 +133’	2.91▲	3.04▲	2.62▼
23:31 +7’	2.94▲	3.08▲	2.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Londrina 0–1–2 Fortaleza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	3-0 HT 1-0	Londrina
26/08/18 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	2-1 HT 0-1	Londrina
01/05/18 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-1 HT 1-1	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
3	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
4	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
11	Athletic Club MG	28	10	10	8	33	30	40
12	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
13	Goias	28	11	6	11	28	34	39
14	Nautico	28	10	8	10	35	33	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	28	8	7	13	31	35	31
17	Avai	28	8	6	14	29	36	30
18	Londrina	28	7	7	14	38	39	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	28	2	4	22	16	62	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Londrina	Fortaleza
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	1-1 D
Operario PR	1-2 L	1-1 D
EC Juventude	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ceara	1-2 L	1-1 D
Goias	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Londrina

LLLLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	12	L
02/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
22/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
11/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-4	5	3	L
23/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	5	L

Fortaleza

LWDDDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
01/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	11	2	D
23/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
15/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
09/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Londrina vs Fortaleza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fortaleza win (36%). Probabilities: Londrina 33%, draw 31%, Fortaleza 36%.

How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Fortaleza?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Londrina 1.11 · Fortaleza 1.18), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Londrina vs Fortaleza?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.