Football · Brazil Serie B · 22/09, 02:30

Prediction: Cuiaba vs Nautico

Team pages: Cuiaba · Nautico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Cuiaba1.28

Nautico0.87

1X2

46% 29% 25%

Cuiaba Draw Nautico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cuiaba 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDWLWD

Nautico 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWWLD

Head-to-head

Cuiaba 1–4 Nautico (5 last)

Nautico1-0Cuiaba
Nautico2-0Cuiaba
Cuiaba1-0Nautico
Cuiaba0-1Nautico
Nautico2-1Cuiaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cuiaba 1520 · Nautico 1532

	Cuiaba	Draw	Nautico
Our model	45%	31%	24%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nautico: 4-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cuiaba	Nautico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 08:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.86 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:41 +2’	2.05	3.10	3.60
09:26 +6’	2.10▲	3.10	3.50▼
19:35 +34’	2.05▼	3.10	3.60▲
04:22 +20’	2.00▼	3.40▲	3.75▲
08:00 +12’	2.05▲	3.40	3.60▼
08:14 +10’	2.05	3.40	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:44 +16’	2.07	3.19	3.86
08:41 +52’	2.18▲	3.11▼	3.63▼
11:41 +30’	2.09▼	3.21▲	3.77▲
17:28 +161’	2.05▼	3.24▲	3.86▲
07:54 +30’	2.05	3.22▼	3.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cuiaba 1–0–4 Nautico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-0 HT 0-0	Cuiaba
23/12/20 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	2-0 HT 0-0	Cuiaba
30/09/20 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	1-0 HT 0-0	Nautico
15/03/18 Copa do Brasil	Cuiaba	0-1 HT 0-0	Nautico
28/02/18 Copa do Brasil	Nautico	2-1 HT 0-0	Cuiaba

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
3	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
4	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
11	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
12	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
13	Goias	28	11	6	11	28	34	39
14	Nautico	28	10	8	10	35	33	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	28	8	6	14	29	36	30
18	Londrina	28	7	7	14	38	39	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	28	2	4	22	16	62	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cuiaba	Nautico
Athletic Club MG	3-0 W	2-1 W
Criciuma	0-2 L	0-0 D
Botafogo SP	2-1 W	1-0 W
Operario PR	1-0 W	3-3 D
Ceara	3-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico GO	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cuiaba (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cuiaba

LDDWWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
09/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
05/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
09/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
24/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L

Nautico

WDDDWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
10/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
04/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
15/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
09/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cuiaba vs Nautico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cuiaba win (46%). Probabilities: Cuiaba 46%, draw 29%, Nautico 25%.

How many goals are expected in Cuiaba vs Nautico?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Cuiaba 1.28 · Nautico 0.87), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Nautico?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.