Football · Brazil Serie B · 19/09, 23:30

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Botafogo SP

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Botafogo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Athletic Club MG1.72

Botafogo SP0.91

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Athletic Club MG Draw Botafogo SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLWLW

Botafogo SP 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 3–0 Botafogo SP (3 last)

Botafogo SP1-2Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG2-0Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP0-3Athletic Club MG

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Club MG (rating 1527 vs 1461).
H2H favours Athletic Club MG: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Botafogo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.6	3.5 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:42

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.37▲	Pinn 2.37
X	2.89 → 2.92▲	Pinn 2.92
2	3.41 → 3.44▲	Pinn 3.44

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:55 +39’	2.35	2.89	3.41
01:44 +58’	2.37▲	2.92▲	3.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 3–0–0 Botafogo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Club MG
14/09/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	2-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
13/05/25 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-3 HT 0-2	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	28	14	8	6	48	25	50
2	EC Juventude	28	14	8	6	30	17	50
3	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
4	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	28	12	10	6	36	26	46
7	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Athletic Club MG	28	10	10	8	33	30	40
11	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
12	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Ceara	28	8	8	12	29	36	32
16	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Botafogo SP
EC Juventude	2-0 W	4-2 W
Cuiaba	0-3 L	1-2 L
Nautico	1-2 L	0-1 L
Gremio Novorizontino	1-4 L	1-3 L
America MG	3-1 W	2-1 W
Criciuma	2-0 W	1-1 D
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

WDWWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
29/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
21/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
16/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
09/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
24/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W

Botafogo SP

DWLWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
15/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
08/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-2	4	3	W
18/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Botafogo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Club MG win (55%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 55%, draw 26%, Botafogo SP 19%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Botafogo SP?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Athletic Club MG 1.72 · Botafogo SP 0.91), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Botafogo SP?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.