Football · Brazil Serie B · 20/09, 21:00

Prediction: Goias vs Avai

Team pages: Goias · Avai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Goias1.29

Avai0.75

1X2

49% 30% 21%

Goias Draw Avai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Goias 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDWLLW

Avai 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLLLD

Head-to-head

Goias 3–1–2 Avai (6 last)

Avai0-2Goias
Avai2-1Goias
Goias2-1Avai
Goias2-1Avai
Avai2-0Goias
Goias1-1Avai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goias 1491 · Avai 1479

	Goias	Draw	Avai
Our model	48%	31%	20%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Goias: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Goias	Avai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.96 ★
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.28
2	4.75 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.42

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:22 +12’	1.75	3.30	4.75
00:07 +26’	1.83▲	3.25▼	4.33▼
15:21 +2’	1.85▲	3.25	4.50▲
03:22 +17’	1.85	3.30▲	4.50
00:34 +2’	1.90▲	3.25▼	4.33▼
09:24 +2’	1.90	3.30▲	4.20▼
10:44 +5’	1.90	3.25▼	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:45 +11’	1.94	3.18	4.18
03:42 +12’	1.85▼	3.32▲	4.59▲
04:11 +34’	1.88▲	3.25▼	4.59
19:01 +53’	1.86▼	3.28▲	4.63▲
21:06 +108’	1.86	3.26▼	4.63
21:03 +48’	1.88▲	3.30▲	4.71▲
23:14 +18’	1.87▼	3.32▲	4.77▲
00:17 +20’	1.95▲	3.26▼	4.38▼
06:05 +8’	1.94▼	3.30▲	4.38
09:01 +25’	1.93▼	3.37▲	4.42▲
10:24 +26’	1.96▲	3.28▼	4.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Goias 3–1–2 Avai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Avai	0-2 HT 0-0	Goias
08/09/25 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-1 HT 1-0	Goias
06/05/25 Brazil Serie B	Goias	2-1 HT 2-1	Avai
14/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Goias	2-1 HT 0-0	Avai
28/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-0 HT 0-0	Goias
13/08/22 Brazil Serie A	Goias	1-1 HT 0-1	Avai

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
3	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
4	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
11	Athletic Club MG	28	10	10	8	33	30	40
12	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
13	Goias	28	11	6	11	28	34	39
14	Nautico	28	10	8	10	35	33	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	28	8	7	13	31	35	31
17	Avai	28	8	6	14	29	36	30
18	Londrina	28	7	7	14	38	39	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	28	2	4	22	16	62	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Goias	Avai
Vila Nova	0-2 L	1-1 D
Fortaleza	0-1 L	0-1 L
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-1 L
America MG	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sport Recife	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Avai (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goias

DLWLLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
11/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
05/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
29/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
22/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
19/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
11/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
26/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
23/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D

Avai

WLLWWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-3	2	3	L
30/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
23/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
20/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
16/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	0	4	W
12/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
29/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goias vs Avai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goias win (49%). Probabilities: Goias 49%, draw 30%, Avai 21%.

How many goals are expected in Goias vs Avai?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Goias 1.29 · Avai 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Goias vs Avai?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.