Football · Brazil Serie B · 13/09, 23:00

Prediction: EC Juventude vs Athletic Club MG

Team pages: EC Juventude · Athletic Club MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

EC Juventude1.59

Athletic Club MG0.74

1X2

56% 28% 16%

EC Juventude Draw Athletic Club MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Juventude 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWDDW

Athletic Club MG 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

EC Juventude 0–1–0 Athletic Club MG (1 last)

Athletic Club MG1-1EC Juventude

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Juventude 1551 · Athletic Club MG 1495

	EC Juventude	Draw	Athletic Club MG
Our model	57%	27%	16%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Juventude (rating 1551 vs 1495).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Juventude	Athletic Club MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.30

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.71
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.50 ★
2	5.75 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 4.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:18 +23’	1.67	3.30	5.75
03:26	1.70▲	3.30	5.75
15:51 +5’	1.67▼	3.30	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +1’	1.65	3.53	5.85
09:18 +64’	1.65▲	3.51▼	5.84▼
13:54 +1’	1.69▲	3.44▼	5.60▼
14:00 +114’	1.71▲	3.36▼	5.59▼
15:42 +15’	1.69▼	3.44▲	5.59
20:06 +10’	1.68▼	3.49▲	5.59
22:07 +48’	1.69▲	3.44▼	5.58▼
23:00 +47’	1.71▲	3.48▲	5.69▲
11:02 +92’	1.71▲	3.50▲	5.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Juventude 0–1–0 Athletic Club MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 1-0	EC Juventude

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Juventude	Athletic Club MG
Criciuma	2-0 W	2-0 W
Atletico GO	2-2 D	0-0 D
CRB	2-1 W	0-2 L
Gremio Novorizontino	1-0 W	1-4 L
Cuiaba	2-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Juventude

WLWWDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
02/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
26/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
15/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
29/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-4	9	3	L
18/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Athletic Club MG

DWDWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
29/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
21/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
16/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
09/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
24/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Juventude vs Athletic Club MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Juventude win (56%). Probabilities: EC Juventude 56%, draw 28%, Athletic Club MG 16%.

How many goals are expected in EC Juventude vs Athletic Club MG?

The model expects 2.33 goals (EC Juventude 1.59 · Athletic Club MG 0.74), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Juventude vs Athletic Club MG?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.