Football · Brazil Serie B · 16/09, 02:30

Prediction: CRB vs Sport Recife

Team pages: CRB · Sport Recife

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

CRB1.65

Sport Recife0.99

1X2

51% 27% 21%

CRB Draw Sport Recife

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CRB 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWLWWL

Sport Recife 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

CRB 2–1–3 Sport Recife (6 last)

Sport Recife1-2CRB
Sport Recife2-1CRB
Sport Recife2-0CRB
CRB1-1Sport Recife
Sport Recife2-0CRB
CRB2-0Sport Recife

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CRB 1563 · Sport Recife 1497

	CRB	Draw	Sport Recife
Our model	52%	27%	22%
Market	51%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CRB (rating 1563 vs 1497).
H2H favours Sport Recife: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CRB	Sport Recife
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.46 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +21’	1.80	3.40	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +31’	1.92	3.38	3.97
04:34 +61’	1.94▲	3.38	4.03▲
06:22 +90’	1.83▼	3.46▲	4.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CRB 2–1–3 Sport Recife

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	1-2 HT 0-1	CRB
06/03/25 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Sport Recife	2-1 HT 2-1	CRB
15/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	2-0 HT 1-0	CRB
12/09/24 Brazil Serie B	CRB	1-1 HT 1-0	Sport Recife
29/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	2-0 HT 0-0	CRB
06/07/23 Brazil Serie B	CRB	2-0 HT 1-0	Sport Recife

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CRB	Sport Recife
Operario PR	0-3 L	2-2 D
America MG	3-1 W	3-0 W
Gremio Novorizontino	0-0 D	1-2 L
Avai	1-0 W	1-2 L
Vila Nova	2-0 W	1-0 W
Ceara	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CRB (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CRB

WWWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
05/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
30/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
26/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	8	2	L
21/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
16/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
28/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
23/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
17/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	2	W

Sport Recife

DDDWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
05/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
29/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
20/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
15/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
08/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
28/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
23/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CRB vs Sport Recife?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CRB win (51%). Probabilities: CRB 51%, draw 27%, Sport Recife 21%.

How many goals are expected in CRB vs Sport Recife?

The model expects 2.63 goals (CRB 1.65 · Sport Recife 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CRB vs Sport Recife?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.