Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/08, 00:30

Prediction: Operario PR vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: Operario PR · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Operario PR1.86

Sao Bernardo SP1.09

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Operario PR Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Operario PR 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWDWL

Sao Bernardo SP 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLDDLL

Head-to-head

Operario PR 3–1 Sao Bernardo SP (4 last)

Sao Bernardo SP1-2Operario PR
Operario PR1-0Sao Bernardo SP
Sao Bernardo SP2-1Operario PR
Operario PR1-0Sao Bernardo SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Operario PR 1567 · Sao Bernardo SP 1435

	Operario PR	Draw	Sao Bernardo SP
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	53%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Operario PR (rating 1567 vs 1435).
H2H favours Operario PR: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Operario PR	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.97
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	4.75 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.24 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +3’	1.75	3.30	4.75
17:14 +5’	1.90▲	3.20▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:05	1.83	3.34	4.43
02:11	1.85▲	3.38▲	4.50▲
03:13	1.88▲	3.30▼	4.43▼
04:23	1.85▼	3.33▲	4.58▲
09:44	2.06▲	3.11▼	4.01▼
11:41 +1’	1.97▼	3.20▲	4.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Operario PR 3–0–1 Sao Bernardo SP

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	1-2 HT 1-1	Operario PR
08/10/23 Brazil Serie C	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Bernardo SP
03/09/23 Brazil Serie C	Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 HT 1-1	Operario PR
06/08/23 Brazil Serie C	Operario PR	1-0 HT 1-0	Sao Bernardo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	20	10	5	5	28	25	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	20	10	4	6	27	24	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
8	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
9	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
10	Sport Recife	20	6	11	3	25	19	29
11	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
12	Sao Bernardo SP	20	7	6	7	28	23	27
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
16	Ceara	20	5	7	8	20	25	22
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	2	3	15	15	39	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Operario PR	Sao Bernardo SP
Sport Recife	2-2 D	0-0 D
Gremio Novorizontino	2-1 W	1-1 D
Athletic Club MG	1-0 W	1-2 L
EC Juventude	2-1 W	0-1 L
Ceara	2-1 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Operario PR

WWLWWWWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
12/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
08/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
27/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
21/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	3-0	3-0	0	3	W
15/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
06/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
31/05	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	10	W

Sao Bernardo SP

DWDLLLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-4	10	3	L
24/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
12/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	2-2	2-2	6	4	D
07/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
27/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
21/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
14/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
07/06	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	0	7	W
31/05	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Operario PR vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Operario PR win (53%). Probabilities: Operario PR 53%, draw 27%, Sao Bernardo SP 20%.

How many goals are expected in Operario PR vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Operario PR 1.86 · Sao Bernardo SP 1.09), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Operario PR vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.