Football · Brazil Serie B · 23/08, 23:30
Prediction: Criciuma vs Fortaleza
Team pages: Criciuma · Fortaleza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.06Total
Criciuma1.28
Fortaleza0.78
1X2
Criciuma
Draw
Fortaleza
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Criciuma
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Fortaleza
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Criciuma
1–1–3
Fortaleza
(5 last)
- Fortaleza3-2Criciuma
- Fortaleza1-0Criciuma
- Criciuma1-1Fortaleza
- Criciuma2-0Fortaleza
- Fortaleza2-0Criciuma
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Criciuma 1555 · Fortaleza 1512
| Criciuma | Draw | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| Market | 48% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Criciuma (rating 1555 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Fortaleza: 3-1-1.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Criciuma | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.4 | 2.9 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Criciuma 1–1–3 Fortaleza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/26 Brazil Serie B | Fortaleza | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Criciuma |
| 10/08/24 Brazil Serie A | Fortaleza | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Criciuma |
| 25/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Criciuma | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza |
| 08/09/18 Brazil Serie B | Criciuma | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza |
| 23/05/18 Brazil Serie B | Fortaleza | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Criciuma |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 44 |
| 2 | EC Juventude | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 12 | 42 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 40 |
| 4 | Gremio Novorizontino | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 37 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 37 |
| 6 | CRB | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 36 |
| 7 | Operario PR | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 31 | 35 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 35 |
| 9 | Athletic Club MG | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 34 |
| 10 | Atletico GO | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 33 |
| 11 | Goias | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 32 |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 23 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 32 |
| 13 | Sao Bernardo SP | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 26 | 31 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 15 | Nautico | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 30 |
| 16 | Avai | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 30 | 26 |
| 17 | Ceara | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 29 | 25 |
| 18 | Londrina | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 21 |
| 19 | America MG | 23 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 39 | 11 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 48 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Criciuma | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Gremio Novorizontino | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Vila Nova | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Ponte Preta | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Sport Recife | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sao Bernardo SP | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Criciuma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/07 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/07 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/06 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Fortaleza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 15/08 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/07 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 03/07 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Criciuma vs Fortaleza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Criciuma win (48%). Probabilities: Criciuma 48%, draw 30%, Fortaleza 22%.
How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs Fortaleza?
The model expects 2.06 goals (Criciuma 1.28 · Fortaleza 0.78), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Fortaleza?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.