Football · Brazil Serie B · 02/09, 00:30

Prediction: Londrina vs EC Juventude

Team pages: Londrina · EC Juventude

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

Londrina0.9

EC Juventude1.01

1X2

31% 33% 36%

Londrina Draw EC Juventude

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Londrina 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWDDLLLLDL

EC Juventude 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Londrina 1–2–3 EC Juventude (6 last)

EC Juventude1-0Londrina
EC Juventude2-2Londrina
Londrina1-2EC Juventude
EC Juventude0-0Londrina
Londrina0-1EC Juventude
EC Juventude0-2Londrina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Londrina 1443 · EC Juventude 1563

	Londrina	Draw	EC Juventude
Our model	30%	34%	36%
Market	31%	31%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Juventude (rating 1443 vs 1563).
H2H favours EC Juventude: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Londrina	EC Juventude
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.17 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.30 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +19’	3.10	3.00	2.30
01:41 +1’	2.90▼	2.90▼	2.45▲
04:38 +1’	3.10▲	3.00▲	2.45
10:45 +2’	3.00▼	3.00	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:37	3.27	2.80	2.48
02:46	3.30▲	2.83▲	2.51▲
21:19	3.12▼	2.79▼	2.66▲
00:17	3.10▼	2.87▲	2.61▼
12:26 +1’	3.17▲	2.87	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Londrina 1–2–3 EC Juventude

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	1-0 HT 1-0	Londrina
21/10/23 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	2-2 HT 1-2	Londrina
29/06/23 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-2 HT 1-0	EC Juventude
28/09/18 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	0-0 HT 0-0	Londrina
09/06/18 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	0-1 HT 0-1	EC Juventude
14/10/17 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	0-2 HT 0-1	Londrina

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	24	13	6	5	26	13	45
2	Criciuma	24	12	8	4	25	17	44
3	Vila Nova	24	12	5	7	35	25	41
4	Gremio Novorizontino	24	11	7	6	39	21	40
5	Fortaleza	24	11	7	6	27	21	40
6	Sport Recife	24	9	11	4	32	22	38
7	CRB	24	10	6	8	35	34	36
8	Operario PR	24	10	6	8	30	31	36
9	Atletico GO	24	9	9	6	27	23	36
10	Athletic Club MG	24	8	10	6	25	25	34
11	Goias	24	9	6	9	23	29	33
12	Cuiaba	24	7	12	5	21	18	33
13	Sao Bernardo SP	24	8	8	8	33	27	32
14	Botafogo SP	24	8	7	9	28	26	31
15	Nautico	24	8	7	9	28	27	31
16	Avai	24	8	5	11	27	30	29
17	Ceara	24	7	7	10	25	30	28
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	24	2	5	17	16	42	11
20	Ponte Preta	24	2	4	18	16	50	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Londrina	EC Juventude
Ceara	1-2 L	2-0 W
Goias	0-1 L	1-0 W
Gremio Novorizontino	1-4 L	1-0 W
Nautico	1-2 L	0-0 D
Botafogo SP	0-0 D	2-4 L
CRB	5-0 W	2-1 W
Cuiaba	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Londrina

DWDDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
11/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-4	5	3	L
23/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
18/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
14/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	5-0	2	6	W
26/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-2	0	9	D

EC Juventude

WDWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
15/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
29/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-4	9	4	L
18/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
28/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Londrina vs EC Juventude?

According to our model, the most likely result is an EC Juventude win (36%). Probabilities: Londrina 31%, draw 33%, EC Juventude 36%.

How many goals are expected in Londrina vs EC Juventude?

The model expects 1.91 goals (Londrina 0.9 · EC Juventude 1.01), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Londrina vs EC Juventude?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.