Football · Brazil Serie B · 30/08, 23:30

Prediction: Vila Nova vs Ceara

Team pages: Vila Nova · Ceara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Vila Nova1.7

Ceara1.05

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Vila Nova Draw Ceara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vila Nova 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLWWD

Ceara 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Vila Nova 2–1–3 Ceara (6 last)

Ceara3-3Vila Nova
Ceara4-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova3-2Ceara
Vila Nova3-1Ceara
Ceara1-0Vila Nova
Ceara2-0Vila Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vila Nova 1504 · Ceara 1469

	Vila Nova	Draw	Ceara
Our model	51%	26%	22%
Market	51%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ceara: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vila Nova	Ceara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	11/33/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.20 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.90 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +12’	1.95	3.20	3.90
02:41 +1’	1.85▼	3.25▲	4.20▲
03:28 +5’	1.85	3.40▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:18 +1’	1.88	3.39	4.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 2–1–3 Ceara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	3-3 HT 3-1	Vila Nova
22/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	4-0 HT 3-0	Vila Nova
11/06/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	3-2 HT 1-1	Ceara
18/11/23 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	3-1 HT 1-1	Ceara
20/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	1-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
04/10/17 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	2-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	24	13	6	5	26	13	45
2	Criciuma	24	12	8	4	25	17	44
3	Vila Nova	24	12	5	7	35	25	41
4	Gremio Novorizontino	24	11	7	6	39	21	40
5	Fortaleza	24	11	7	6	27	21	40
6	Sport Recife	24	9	11	4	32	22	38
7	CRB	24	10	6	8	35	34	36
8	Operario PR	24	10	6	8	30	31	36
9	Atletico GO	24	9	9	6	27	23	36
10	Athletic Club MG	24	8	10	6	25	25	34
11	Goias	24	9	6	9	23	29	33
12	Cuiaba	24	7	12	5	21	18	33
13	Sao Bernardo SP	24	8	8	8	33	27	32
14	Botafogo SP	24	8	7	9	28	26	31
15	Nautico	24	8	7	9	28	27	31
16	Avai	24	8	5	11	27	30	29
17	Ceara	24	7	7	10	25	30	28
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	24	2	5	17	16	42	11
20	Ponte Preta	24	2	4	18	16	50	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vila Nova	Ceara
Ponte Preta	6-0 W	2-0 W
CRB	0-2 L	0-1 L
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-2 L
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vila Nova

LWLLWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	9	3	W
15/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	15	6	L
28/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
22/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
11/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
07/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	4	L

Ceara

LLDDLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
08/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
26/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	4-3	3	3	W
23/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
18/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
05/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
28/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs Ceara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (51%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 51%, draw 27%, Ceara 22%.

How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Ceara?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Vila Nova 1.7 · Ceara 1.05), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Ceara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.