Football · Brazil Serie B · 01/09, 00:30

Prediction: Fortaleza vs Operario PR

Team pages: Fortaleza · Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Fortaleza1.51

Operario PR0.74

1X2

55% 28% 18%

Fortaleza Draw Operario PR

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortaleza 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDDDW

Operario PR 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Fortaleza 0–1–0 Operario PR (1 last)

Operario PR0-0Fortaleza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortaleza 1545 · Operario PR 1478

	Fortaleza	Draw	Operario PR
Our model	55%	28%	17%
Market	55%	27%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1545 vs 1478).
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.71
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.56 ★
2	5.00 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +1’	1.70	3.40	5.00
04:37 +1’	1.70	3.50▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:19 +1’	1.70	3.59	5.13
17:52 +1’	1.71▲	3.56▼	5.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 0–1–0 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	24	13	6	5	26	13	45
2	Criciuma	24	12	8	4	25	17	44
3	Vila Nova	24	12	5	7	35	25	41
4	Gremio Novorizontino	24	11	7	6	39	21	40
5	Fortaleza	24	11	7	6	27	21	40
6	Sport Recife	24	9	11	4	32	22	38
7	CRB	24	10	6	8	35	34	36
8	Operario PR	24	10	6	8	30	31	36
9	Atletico GO	24	9	9	6	27	23	36
10	Athletic Club MG	24	8	10	6	25	25	34
11	Goias	24	9	6	9	23	29	33
12	Cuiaba	24	7	12	5	21	18	33
13	Sao Bernardo SP	24	8	8	8	33	27	32
14	Botafogo SP	24	8	7	9	28	26	31
15	Nautico	24	8	7	9	28	27	31
16	Avai	24	8	5	11	27	30	29
17	Ceara	24	7	7	10	25	30	28
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	24	2	5	17	16	42	11
20	Ponte Preta	24	2	4	18	16	50	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza	Operario PR
Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 D	1-3 L
Cuiaba	1-1 D	0-1 L
Vila Nova	1-2 L	0-0 D
Gremio Novorizontino	1-0 W	2-1 W
Atletico GO	0-1 L	1-3 L
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	3-2 W
Sport Recife	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortaleza

WWLWLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
15/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
09/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
18/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
12/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	7	L
03/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
28/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

Operario PR

WWWDWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
08/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
28/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
12/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
08/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortaleza vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza win (55%). Probabilities: Fortaleza 55%, draw 28%, Operario PR 18%.

How many goals are expected in Fortaleza vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Fortaleza 1.51 · Operario PR 0.74), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.