Football · Brazil Serie B · 06/09, 23:30
Prediction: Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo SP
Team pages: Ponte Preta · Sao Bernardo SP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Ponte Preta0.92
Sao Bernardo SP1.93
1X2
Ponte Preta
Draw
Sao Bernardo SP
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Ponte Preta
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Sao Bernardo SP
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ponte Preta
1–1–4
Sao Bernardo SP
(6 last)
- Sao Bernardo SP3-0Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta0-1Sao Bernardo SP
- Sao Bernardo SP2-0Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta3-3Sao Bernardo SP
- Sao Bernardo SP2-0Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta1-0Sao Bernardo SP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ponte Preta 1382 · Sao Bernardo SP 1479
| Ponte Preta | Draw | Sao Bernardo SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Bernardo SP (rating 1382 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Sao Bernardo SP: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ponte Preta | Sao Bernardo SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.3 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.7 | 2.6 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 1–1–4 Sao Bernardo SP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Brazil Serie B | Sao Bernardo SP | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 22/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Ponte Preta | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sao Bernardo SP |
| 12/07/25 Brazil Serie C | Sao Bernardo SP | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 05/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Ponte Preta | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Sao Bernardo SP |
| 05/02/22 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Sao Bernardo SP | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 25/02/17 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Ponte Preta | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sao Bernardo SP |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 13 | 46 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 44 |
| 4 | Gremio Novorizontino | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 22 | 43 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 41 |
| 6 | CRB | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 35 | 39 |
| 7 | Atletico GO | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 39 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 38 |
| 9 | Operario PR | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 37 |
| 10 | Goias | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 36 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 25 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 36 |
| 12 | Nautico | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 28 | 34 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 26 | 27 | 34 |
| 14 | Sao Bernardo SP | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 29 | 32 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 28 | 31 |
| 16 | Avai | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 31 | 29 |
| 17 | Ceara | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 28 |
| 18 | Londrina | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 29 | 36 | 22 |
| 19 | America MG | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 42 | 14 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ponte Preta | Sao Bernardo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Avai | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Vila Nova | 0-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Nautico | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Ceara | 0-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Athletic Club MG | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Operario PR | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Goias | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Fortaleza | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 6 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ponte Preta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 08/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 23/07 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Sao Bernardo SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 20/08 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 15/08 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/07 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo SP?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Bernardo SP win (60%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 17%, draw 23%, Sao Bernardo SP 60%.
How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo SP?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Ponte Preta 0.92 · Sao Bernardo SP 1.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo SP?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.