Football · Brazil Serie B · 05/09, 21:00

Prediction: Goias vs Fortaleza

Team pages: Goias · Fortaleza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Goias1.17

Fortaleza0.91

1X2

41% 32% 28%

Goias Draw Fortaleza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Goias 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWLLDW

Fortaleza 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Goias 1–2–3 Fortaleza (6 last)

Fortaleza4-1Goias
Fortaleza1-0Goias
Goias1-0Fortaleza
Goias0-1Fortaleza
Fortaleza1-1Goias
Fortaleza1-1Goias

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goias 1497 · Fortaleza 1551

	Goias	Draw	Fortaleza
Our model	40%	32%	27%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1497 vs 1551).
H2H favours Fortaleza: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Goias	Fortaleza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +9’	2.25	3.00	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Goias 1–2–3 Fortaleza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	4-1 HT 0-1	Goias
03/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Fortaleza	1-0 HT 1-0	Goias
05/08/23 Brazil Serie A	Goias	1-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza
02/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Goias	0-1 HT 0-1	Fortaleza
10/06/22 Brazil Serie A	Fortaleza	1-1 HT 1-0	Goias
27/11/20 Brazil Serie A	Fortaleza	1-1 HT 0-1	Goias

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	24	13	6	5	26	13	45
2	Vila Nova	25	13	5	7	37	25	44
3	Criciuma	25	12	8	5	26	19	44
4	Gremio Novorizontino	25	12	7	6	41	22	43
5	Fortaleza	24	11	7	6	27	21	40
6	CRB	25	11	6	8	37	35	39
7	Atletico GO	25	10	9	6	28	23	39
8	Sport Recife	25	9	11	5	33	24	38
9	Operario PR	24	10	6	8	30	31	36
10	Goias	25	10	6	9	25	30	36
11	Cuiaba	25	8	12	5	23	19	36
12	Nautico	25	9	7	9	30	28	34
13	Athletic Club MG	25	8	10	7	26	27	34
14	Sao Bernardo SP	25	8	8	9	34	29	32
15	Botafogo SP	25	8	7	10	29	28	31
16	Avai	25	8	5	12	27	31	29
17	Ceara	25	7	7	11	25	32	28
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	25	3	5	17	18	42	14
20	Ponte Preta	25	2	4	19	16	52	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Goias	Fortaleza
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cuiaba	1-1 D	1-1 D
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-0 D
Criciuma	0-1 L	2-0 W
Sport Recife	1-1 D	2-1 W
Ponte Preta	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goias

WDWDLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
22/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
19/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
11/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
26/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
23/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
18/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
13/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-2	1	3	D
05/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Fortaleza

WWLWLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
15/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
09/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
18/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
12/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	7	L
03/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
28/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goias vs Fortaleza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goias win (41%). Probabilities: Goias 41%, draw 32%, Fortaleza 28%.

How many goals are expected in Goias vs Fortaleza?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Goias 1.17 · Fortaleza 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Goias vs Fortaleza?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.