Football · Brazil Serie B · 15/09, 00:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Goias

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Goias

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Botafogo SP1.17

Goias0.85

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Botafogo SP Draw Goias

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDLLLL

Goias 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 2–3 Goias (5 last)

Goias1-0Botafogo SP
Goias2-3Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP0-1Goias
Botafogo SP1-0Goias
Goias4-0Botafogo SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1462 · Goias 1478

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Goias
Our model	42%	33%	25%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Goias: 3-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Goias
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.8	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +14’	2.20	3.00	3.50
04:56 +2’	2.20	3.00	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +52’	2.32	2.90	3.46
01:45 +109’	2.34▲	2.93▲	3.50▲
07:00 +38’	2.31▼	2.95▲	3.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 2–0–3 Goias

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Goias	1-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
30/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Goias	2-3 HT 1-1	Botafogo SP
29/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-1 HT 0-1	Goias
10/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-0 HT 0-0	Goias
18/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Goias	4-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Goias
Cuiaba	1-2 L	1-1 D
Criciuma	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sao Bernardo SP	1-0 W	2-1 W
America MG	2-1 W	0-1 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	0-1 L
EC Juventude	4-2 W	0-1 L
Londrina	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo SP (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

DWLWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
15/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
08/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-2	4	3	W
18/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Goias

WDLWLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
05/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
29/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
22/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
19/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
11/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
26/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
23/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
18/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Goias?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (42%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 42%, draw 32%, Goias 26%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Goias?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Botafogo SP 1.17 · Goias 0.85), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Goias?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.