Football · Brazil Serie B · 15/09, 02:30

Prediction: Avai vs Vila Nova

Team pages: Avai · Vila Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Avai1.23

Vila Nova1.13

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Avai Draw Vila Nova

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Avai 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWLLL

Vila Nova 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Avai 1–3–2 Vila Nova (6 last)

Vila Nova2-0Avai
Vila Nova2-2Avai
Avai1-1Vila Nova
Avai3-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-1Avai
Vila Nova1-1Avai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avai 1483 · Vila Nova 1522

	Avai	Draw	Vila Nova
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vila Nova: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avai	Vila Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.53
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.91 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +2’	2.55	3.10	2.70
04:07 +52’	2.60▲	3.20▲	2.75▲
09:01 +2’	2.50▼	3.20	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +28’	2.47	3.13	2.93
01:42 +113’	2.50▲	3.16▲	2.96▲
16:04 +9’	2.53▲	3.16	2.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avai 1–3–2 Vila Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-0 HT 2-0	Avai
09/11/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-2 HT 1-0	Avai
19/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-1 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
26/10/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	3-0 HT 2-0	Vila Nova
14/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-1 HT 0-1	Avai
12/08/23 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-1 HT 0-1	Avai

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avai	Vila Nova
Fortaleza	0-1 L	2-1 W
Atletico GO	0-1 L	2-0 W
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	6-0 W
Sport Recife	2-1 W	0-1 L
Operario PR	2-1 W	0-0 D
CRB	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avai

DWLLWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-3	2	3	L
30/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
23/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
20/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
16/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	0	4	W
12/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
29/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
18/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	5	D

Vila Nova

LWLLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L
30/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	9	3	W
15/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	15	6	L
28/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
22/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avai vs Vila Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avai win (37%). Probabilities: Avai 37%, draw 30%, Vila Nova 33%.

How many goals are expected in Avai vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Avai 1.23 · Vila Nova 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avai vs Vila Nova?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.