Football · Brazil Serie B · 13/09, 23:30

Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs Cuiaba

Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · Cuiaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Gremio Novorizontino1.5

Cuiaba0.7

1X2

56% 28% 16%

Gremio Novorizontino Draw Cuiaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio Novorizontino 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWWWW

Cuiaba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Gremio Novorizontino 2–1–0 Cuiaba (3 last)

Cuiaba0-0Gremio Novorizontino
Cuiaba0-1Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino3-0Cuiaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio Novorizontino 1563 · Cuiaba 1508

	Gremio Novorizontino	Draw	Cuiaba
Our model	55%	28%	16%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1563 vs 1508).
H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 2-1-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio Novorizontino	Cuiaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 7.7	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.40

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.62 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 4.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +4’	1.67	3.30	5.75
03:26 +1’	1.67	3.40▲	6.00▲
06:48 +2’	1.70▲	3.40	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +40’	1.85	3.19	4.62
03:06 +40’	1.79▼	3.32▲	4.98▲
04:04 +108’	1.83▲	3.27▼	4.82▼
13:15 +40’	1.72▼	3.43▲	5.31▲
19:23 +140’	1.70▼	3.46▲	5.40▲
02:47 +115’	1.68▼	3.54▲	5.52▲
20:06 +11’	1.65▼	3.62▲	5.53▲
22:12 +43’	1.67▲	3.58▼	5.52▼
23:32 +16’	1.69▲	3.60▲	5.60▲
11:32 +64’	1.69▲	3.62▲	5.66▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 2–1–0 Cuiaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
09/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	0-1 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
15/06/25 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	3-0 HT 1-0	Cuiaba

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio Novorizontino	Cuiaba
Botafogo SP	3-1 W	2-1 W
Sport Recife	2-1 W	1-1 D
Athletic Club MG	4-1 W	3-0 W
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-2 L
Criciuma	0-1 L	0-2 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio Novorizontino

LLWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
21/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
09/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
22/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Cuiaba

LLDDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
05/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
09/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
24/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
18/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs Cuiaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (56%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 56%, draw 28%, Cuiaba 16%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs Cuiaba?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 1.5 · Cuiaba 0.7), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs Cuiaba?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.