Football · Brazil Serie B · 16/08, 23:30
Prediction: CRB vs Gremio Novorizontino
Team pages: CRB · Gremio Novorizontino
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
CRB1.41
Gremio Novorizontino1.23
1X2
CRB
Draw
Gremio Novorizontino
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CRB
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Gremio Novorizontino
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CRB
2–1–3
Gremio Novorizontino
(6 last)
- Gremio Novorizontino1-1CRB
- Gremio Novorizontino3-0CRB
- CRB4-0Gremio Novorizontino
- CRB0-1Gremio Novorizontino
- Gremio Novorizontino2-1CRB
- CRB1-0Gremio Novorizontino
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CRB 1529 · Gremio Novorizontino 1529
| CRB | Draw | Gremio Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CRB | Gremio Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CRB 2–1–3 Gremio Novorizontino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CRB |
| 22/11/25 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 3-0 HT 2-0 | CRB |
| 27/07/25 Brazil Serie B | CRB | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 11/08/24 Brazil Serie B | CRB | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
| 20/04/24 Brazil Serie B | Gremio Novorizontino | 2-1 HT 0-1 | CRB |
| 26/08/23 Brazil Serie B | CRB | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio Novorizontino |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | EC Juventude | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 12 | 38 |
| 3 | Fortaleza | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 35 |
| 4 | Operario PR | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 35 |
| 5 | Vila Nova | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 34 |
| 6 | Gremio Novorizontino | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 20 | 33 |
| 7 | CRB | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| 8 | Goias | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 32 |
| 9 | Atletico GO | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 32 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 32 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 31 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 24 | 30 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 27 |
| 14 | Nautico | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| 15 | Cuiaba | 21 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 26 |
| 16 | Ceara | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 25 |
| 17 | Londrina | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 32 | 20 |
| 18 | Avai | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 28 | 20 |
| 19 | America MG | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 33 | 11 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 21 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 41 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CRB | Gremio Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Nautico | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Goias | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| Londrina | 0-5 L | 4-1 W |
| Fortaleza | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Atletico GO | 3-3 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CRB
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/07 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/07 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-5 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 01/07 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
3-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
Gremio Novorizontino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/06 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/06 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/06 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CRB vs Gremio Novorizontino?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CRB win (40%). Probabilities: CRB 40%, draw 29%, Gremio Novorizontino 31%.
How many goals are expected in CRB vs Gremio Novorizontino?
The model expects 2.64 goals (CRB 1.41 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CRB vs Gremio Novorizontino?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.