Football · Brazil Serie B · 23/08, 23:00

Prediction: Operario PR vs Vila Nova

Team pages: Operario PR · Vila Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Operario PR1.52

Vila Nova1.33

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Operario PR Draw Vila Nova

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Operario PR 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWLLLL

Vila Nova 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Operario PR 0–3–3 Vila Nova (6 last)

Vila Nova2-1Operario PR
Operario PR2-2Vila Nova
Vila Nova0-0Operario PR
Operario PR2-3Vila Nova
Vila Nova1-0Operario PR
Operario PR1-1Vila Nova

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vila Nova: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Operario PR	Vila Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.4	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.94

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.16
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.12 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:42 +7’	2.00	3.10	3.75
17:11 +3’	2.00	3.20▲	3.75
06:08 +7’	2.00	3.20	4.00▲
23:27 +3’	2.10▲	3.10▼	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:58	1.96	2.98	4.71
07:58	2.15▲	2.83▼	4.18▼
14:22 +1’	2.11▼	2.86▲	4.29▲
16:28 +6’	2.15▲	2.81▼	4.24▼
06:05 +7’	2.14▼	2.82▲	4.26▲
21:12 +15’	2.18▲	2.79▼	4.19▼
23:25 +5’	2.20▲	2.88▲	4.12▼
02:26 +5’	2.16▼	2.94▲	4.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Operario PR 0–3–3 Vila Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-1 HT 1-1	Operario PR
03/11/25 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-2 HT 0-1	Vila Nova
12/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	Operario PR
21/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-3 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
04/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-0 HT 0-0	Operario PR
01/10/22 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-1 HT 1-1	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	23	12	8	3	25	15	44
2	EC Juventude	23	12	6	5	24	12	42
3	Vila Nova	23	12	4	7	35	25	40
4	Gremio Novorizontino	23	10	7	6	35	20	37
5	Fortaleza	23	10	7	6	25	21	37
6	CRB	23	10	6	7	34	32	36
7	Operario PR	23	10	5	8	30	31	35
8	Sport Recife	23	8	11	4	29	22	35
9	Athletic Club MG	23	8	10	5	24	21	34
10	Atletico GO	23	8	9	6	24	23	33
11	Goias	23	9	5	9	22	28	32
12	Cuiaba	23	7	11	5	20	17	32
13	Sao Bernardo SP	23	8	7	8	32	26	31
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	28	23	31
15	Nautico	23	8	6	9	27	26	30
16	Avai	23	7	5	11	25	30	26
17	Ceara	23	6	7	10	23	29	25
18	Londrina	23	5	6	12	28	34	21
19	America MG	23	2	5	16	16	39	11
20	Ponte Preta	23	2	4	17	16	48	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Operario PR	Vila Nova
Sao Bernardo SP	1-3 L	2-1 W
Atletico GO	1-3 L	2-0 W
Ponte Preta	3-2 W	6-0 W
Sport Recife	2-2 D	0-1 L
Gremio Novorizontino	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Operario PR

WWWWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
08/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
28/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
12/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
08/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
27/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
21/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	3-0	3-0	0	3	W

Vila Nova

WLWLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	9	3	W
15/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	15	6	L
28/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
22/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
11/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
07/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
21/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	4-1	4-3	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Operario PR vs Vila Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Operario PR win (41%). Probabilities: Operario PR 41%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 32%.

How many goals are expected in Operario PR vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Operario PR 1.52 · Vila Nova 1.33), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Operario PR vs Vila Nova?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.