Football · Brazil Serie B · 25/08, 00:30

Prediction: Sport Recife vs America MG

Team pages: Sport Recife · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Sport Recife1.59

America MG0.78

1X2

56% 27% 18%

Sport Recife Draw America MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Recife 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDDWWL

America MG 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Sport Recife 1–2–3 America MG (6 last)

America MG0-0Sport Recife
America MG2-1Sport Recife
Sport Recife1-1America MG
Sport Recife2-3America MG
America MG0-1Sport Recife
Sport Recife0-2America MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Recife 1495 · America MG 1429

	Sport Recife	Draw	America MG
Our model	55%	27%	17%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Recife (rating 1495 vs 1429).
H2H favours America MG: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Recife	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.71 ★
2	4.75 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.29

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +4’	1.73	3.40	4.75
16:40 +13’	1.70▼	3.50▲	5.00▲
23:57 +2’	1.67▼	3.60▲	5.00
06:45 +5’	1.67	3.60	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:55 +1’	1.73	3.48	5.14
08:12	1.69▼	3.64▲	5.14
06:47 +2’	1.67▼	3.69▲	5.27▲
02:28 +7’	1.66▼	3.71▲	5.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Recife 1–2–3 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	0-0 HT 0-0	Sport Recife
29/10/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-1 HT 1-0	Sport Recife
13/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	1-1 HT 0-1	America MG
11/11/21 Brazil Serie A	Sport Recife	2-3 HT 0-1	America MG
20/07/21 Brazil Serie A	America MG	0-1 HT 0-0	Sport Recife
21/09/19 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	0-2 HT 0-0	America MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	23	12	8	3	25	15	44
2	EC Juventude	23	12	6	5	24	12	42
3	Vila Nova	23	12	4	7	35	25	40
4	Gremio Novorizontino	23	10	7	6	35	20	37
5	Fortaleza	23	10	7	6	25	21	37
6	CRB	23	10	6	7	34	32	36
7	Operario PR	23	10	5	8	30	31	35
8	Sport Recife	23	8	11	4	29	22	35
9	Athletic Club MG	23	8	10	5	24	21	34
10	Goias	24	9	6	9	23	29	33
11	Atletico GO	23	8	9	6	24	23	33
12	Cuiaba	24	7	12	5	21	18	33
13	Sao Bernardo SP	23	8	7	8	32	26	31
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	28	23	31
15	Nautico	23	8	6	9	27	26	30
16	Ceara	24	7	7	10	25	30	28
17	Avai	23	7	5	11	25	30	26
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	23	2	5	16	16	39	11
20	Ponte Preta	23	2	4	17	16	48	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Recife	America MG
Avai	1-2 L	1-2 L
Londrina	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cuiaba	1-1 D	0-1 L
Goias	1-1 D	1-0 W
Operario PR	2-2 D	0-1 L
Botafogo SP	3-3 D	1-2 L
Criciuma	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Recife (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Recife

DLLDDDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
15/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
08/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
28/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
23/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	7	8	D
11/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	3-3	7	7	D
04/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
28/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
19/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D

America MG

LLLDDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
24/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Recife vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Recife win (56%). Probabilities: Sport Recife 56%, draw 27%, America MG 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Recife vs America MG?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Sport Recife 1.59 · America MG 0.78), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs America MG?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.