Football · Brazil Serie B · 25/08, 00:30

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Gremio Novorizontino

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Gremio Novorizontino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Athletic Club MG0.95

Gremio Novorizontino1.02

1X2

32% 32% 36%

Athletic Club MG Draw Gremio Novorizontino

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWDWWL

Gremio Novorizontino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWLDW

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 0–3 Gremio Novorizontino (3 last)

Gremio Novorizontino2-1Athletic Club MG
Gremio Novorizontino1-0Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG0-2Gremio Novorizontino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Club MG 1497 · Gremio Novorizontino 1536

	Athletic Club MG	Draw	Gremio Novorizontino
Our model	31%	34%	35%
Market	32%	31%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Gremio Novorizontino
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.00 ★
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	2.70 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +1’	2.70	2.90	2.70
16:40 +13’	2.80▲	3.00▲	2.60▼
06:47 +4’	2.90▲	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:55 +1’	2.71	3.01	2.83
06:20 +1’	2.98▲	3.02▲	2.58▼
21:45 +9’	3.00▲	2.97▼	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 0–0–3 Gremio Novorizontino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	2-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Club MG
20/09/25 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Club MG
18/05/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	0-2 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	23	12	8	3	25	15	44
2	EC Juventude	23	12	6	5	24	12	42
3	Vila Nova	23	12	4	7	35	25	40
4	Gremio Novorizontino	23	10	7	6	35	20	37
5	Fortaleza	23	10	7	6	25	21	37
6	CRB	23	10	6	7	34	32	36
7	Operario PR	23	10	5	8	30	31	35
8	Sport Recife	23	8	11	4	29	22	35
9	Athletic Club MG	23	8	10	5	24	21	34
10	Goias	24	9	6	9	23	29	33
11	Atletico GO	23	8	9	6	24	23	33
12	Cuiaba	24	7	12	5	21	18	33
13	Sao Bernardo SP	23	8	7	8	32	26	31
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	28	23	31
15	Nautico	23	8	6	9	27	26	30
16	Ceara	24	7	7	10	25	30	28
17	Avai	23	7	5	11	25	30	26
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	23	2	5	16	16	39	11
20	Ponte Preta	23	2	4	17	16	48	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Gremio Novorizontino
CRB	0-2 L	0-0 D
America MG	3-1 W	3-0 W
Criciuma	2-0 W	0-1 L
Ponte Preta	1-1 D	2-0 W
Atletico GO	0-0 D	3-0 W
Operario PR	0-1 L	1-2 L
Londrina	0-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

LWLDDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
16/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
09/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
24/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
14/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
08/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/06	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	8	4	L

Gremio Novorizontino

WWWLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
09/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
22/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
12/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
04/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
27/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
23/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Gremio Novorizontino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gremio Novorizontino win (36%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 32%, draw 32%, Gremio Novorizontino 36%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Athletic Club MG 0.95 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.