Football · Brazil Serie B · 23/08, 21:00

Prediction: Ponte Preta vs Avai

Team pages: Ponte Preta · Avai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Ponte Preta0.88

Avai1.58

1X2

20% 27% 53%

Ponte Preta Draw Avai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ponte Preta 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLDL

Avai 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Ponte Preta 3–1–2 Avai (6 last)

Avai1-2Ponte Preta
Avai2-1Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta1-0Avai
Ponte Preta0-1Avai
Avai0-1Ponte Preta
Avai1-1Ponte Preta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponte Preta 1414 · Avai 1498

	Ponte Preta	Draw	Avai
Our model	20%	28%	52%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avai (rating 1414 vs 1498).
H2H favours Ponte Preta: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponte Preta	Avai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.3	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 3.8	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.60

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.50▲	Pinn 5.36 ★
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	1.90 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.77

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:42 +5’	4.00	3.30	1.90
17:08 +2’	4.10▲	3.40▲	1.85▼
21:45 +5’	4.00▼	3.30▼	1.90▲
06:08 +6’	4.20▲	3.50▲	1.85▼
12:09 +1’	4.10▼	3.50	1.85
21:10 +4’	4.33▲	3.50	1.80▼
00:09 +11’	4.50▲	3.60▲	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:53	4.36	3.17	1.95
17:06 +3’	4.60▲	3.19▲	1.89▼
12:09 +1’	4.63▲	3.21▲	1.88▼
16:26 +1’	4.77▲	3.23▲	1.85▼
12:51 +3’	4.86▲	3.22▼	1.84▼
21:12 +2’	5.03▲	3.28▲	1.84
00:19 +2’	5.36▲	3.38▲	1.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 3–1–2 Avai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-2 HT 1-1	Ponte Preta
23/11/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-1 HT 1-0	Ponte Preta
04/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-0 HT 0-0	Avai
04/11/23 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	0-1 HT 0-0	Avai
08/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Avai	0-1 HT 0-1	Ponte Preta
06/10/21 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-1 HT 1-0	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	23	12	8	3	25	15	44
2	EC Juventude	23	12	6	5	24	12	42
3	Vila Nova	23	12	4	7	35	25	40
4	Gremio Novorizontino	23	10	7	6	35	20	37
5	Fortaleza	23	10	7	6	25	21	37
6	CRB	23	10	6	7	34	32	36
7	Operario PR	23	10	5	8	30	31	35
8	Sport Recife	23	8	11	4	29	22	35
9	Athletic Club MG	23	8	10	5	24	21	34
10	Atletico GO	23	8	9	6	24	23	33
11	Goias	23	9	5	9	22	28	32
12	Cuiaba	23	7	11	5	20	17	32
13	Sao Bernardo SP	23	8	7	8	32	26	31
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	28	23	31
15	Nautico	23	8	6	9	27	26	30
16	Avai	23	7	5	11	25	30	26
17	Ceara	23	6	7	10	23	29	25
18	Londrina	23	5	6	12	28	34	21
19	America MG	23	2	5	16	16	39	11
20	Ponte Preta	23	2	4	17	16	48	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponte Preta	Avai
Nautico	1-1 D	2-0 W
Athletic Club MG	1-1 D	0-1 L
Operario PR	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Avai (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponte Preta

LLLLLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	4	3	L
15/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
08/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
29/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
23/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
18/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
09/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
03/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
28/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
23/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	5	L

Avai

WLLWDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
16/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	0	4	W
12/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
29/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
12/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
07/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
28/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
21/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs Avai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avai win (53%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 20%, draw 27%, Avai 53%.

How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs Avai?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Ponte Preta 0.88 · Avai 1.58), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Avai?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.