Football · Brazil Serie B · 10/09, 00:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Gremio Novorizontino

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Gremio Novorizontino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Botafogo SP1.07

Gremio Novorizontino1.18

1X2

32% 31% 37%

Botafogo SP Draw Gremio Novorizontino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWDLLL

Gremio Novorizontino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 0–2–4 Gremio Novorizontino (6 last)

Gremio Novorizontino1-0Botafogo SP
Gremio Novorizontino2-0Botafogo SP
Gremio Novorizontino1-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP0-0Gremio Novorizontino
Botafogo SP1-2Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino2-0Botafogo SP

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1475 vs 1547).
H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Gremio Novorizontino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.2	4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 22.01

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.05 → 2.76▼	Pinn 2.76
X	3.08 → 3.05▼	Pinn 3.05
2	2.49 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.75

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:18 +40’	3.05	3.08	2.49
23:09 +43’	2.83▼	3.06▼	2.68▲
01:08 +69’	2.76▼	3.05▼	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 0–2–4 Gremio Novorizontino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	1-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
25/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Gremio Novorizontino	2-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo SP
25/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	1-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
06/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
23/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Botafogo SP	1-2 HT 1-2	Gremio Novorizontino
14/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	2-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	26	13	8	5	28	15	47
2	Criciuma	26	13	8	5	28	19	47
3	Gremio Novorizontino	26	13	7	6	44	23	46
4	Vila Nova	26	13	5	8	37	30	44
5	Fortaleza	26	12	8	6	29	22	44
6	CRB	26	12	6	8	40	36	42
7	Atletico GO	26	10	10	6	30	25	40
8	Sport Recife	26	9	11	6	34	26	38
9	Nautico	26	10	7	9	31	28	37
10	Operario PR	25	10	7	8	31	32	37
11	Athletic Club MG	26	9	10	7	31	27	37
12	Goias	26	10	6	10	25	31	36
13	Cuiaba	26	8	12	6	23	21	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	25	8	8	9	34	29	32
15	Botafogo SP	26	8	7	11	29	29	31
16	Ceara	26	8	7	11	27	33	31
17	Avai	26	8	5	13	28	34	29
18	Londrina	25	5	7	13	29	36	22
19	America MG	26	3	5	18	19	45	14
20	Ponte Preta	25	2	4	19	16	52	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Gremio Novorizontino
Criciuma	1-1 D	0-1 L
America MG	2-1 W	3-0 W
Fortaleza	0-1 L	0-1 L
EC Juventude	4-2 W	0-1 L
Londrina	0-0 D	4-1 W
Sport Recife	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

DDWLWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
15/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
08/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-2	4	4	W
18/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-3	2	7	D

Gremio Novorizontino

LLLWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
21/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
09/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
22/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
12/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Gremio Novorizontino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gremio Novorizontino win (37%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 32%, draw 31%, Gremio Novorizontino 37%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Botafogo SP 1.07 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.