Football · Brazil Serie B · 19/09, 00:30

Prediction: Vila Nova vs America MG

Team pages: Vila Nova · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Vila Nova1.81

America MG0.87

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Vila Nova Draw America MG

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Vila Nova 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDWLW

America MG 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Vila Nova 2–1–3 America MG (6 last)

America MG1-2Vila Nova
America MG1-1Vila Nova
Vila Nova0-3America MG
Vila Nova1-0America MG
America MG3-1Vila Nova
America MG2-0Vila Nova

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vila Nova (rating 1525 vs 1439).
H2H favours America MG: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vila Nova	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.91

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:17

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.56 → 1.55▼	Pinn 1.55
X	3.82 → 3.92▲	Pinn 3.92
2	5.85 → 6.17▲	Pinn 6.17

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:19 +1’	1.56	3.82	5.85
04:07 +10’	1.55▼	3.92▲	6.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 2–1–3 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-2 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
09/10/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 0-1	Vila Nova
14/06/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-3 HT 0-0	America MG
25/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-0 HT 0-0	America MG
09/05/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	3-1 HT 2-1	Vila Nova
16/10/19 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	28	14	8	6	48	25	50
2	EC Juventude	28	14	8	6	30	17	50
3	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
4	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	28	12	10	6	36	26	46
7	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Athletic Club MG	28	10	10	8	33	30	40
11	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
12	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Ceara	28	8	8	12	29	36	32
16	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vila Nova	America MG
Goias	2-0 W	1-0 W
Athletic Club MG	0-5 L	1-3 L
Ceara	2-0 W	1-1 D
Ponte Preta	6-0 W	2-0 W
Sport Recife	0-1 L	0-3 L
CRB	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vila Nova

LWLLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L
30/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	9	3	W
15/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	15	6	L
28/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
22/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	8	L

America MG

DLWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (58%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 58%, draw 25%, America MG 17%.

How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs America MG?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Vila Nova 1.81 · America MG 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs America MG?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.