Football · Brazil Serie B · 19/09, 01:30

Prediction: Ceara vs Gremio Novorizontino

Team pages: Ceara · Gremio Novorizontino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Ceara1.23

Gremio Novorizontino1.43

1X2

31% 28% 40%

Ceara Draw Gremio Novorizontino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ceara 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLWLWL

Gremio Novorizontino 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Ceara 2–3 Gremio Novorizontino (5 last)

Gremio Novorizontino2-1Ceara
Ceara1-0Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino0-3Ceara
Gremio Novorizontino4-1Ceara
Ceara0-3Gremio Novorizontino

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1478 vs 1562).
H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 3-0-2.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ceara	Gremio Novorizontino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5.8	4.3 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.83

Under 2.251.99

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.78 → 2.81▲	Pinn 2.81
X	3.28 → 3.32▲	Pinn 3.32
2	2.50 → 2.52▲	Pinn 2.52

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:52 +21’	2.78	3.28	2.50
00:45 +27’	2.81▲	3.32▲	2.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ceara 2–0–3 Gremio Novorizontino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	2-1 HT 1-1	Ceara
27/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	1-0 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
11/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	0-3 HT 0-1	Ceara
19/09/23 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	4-1 HT 3-0	Ceara
28/05/23 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	0-3 HT 0-1	Gremio Novorizontino

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ceara	Gremio Novorizontino
Sport Recife	2-1 W	2-1 W
Londrina	2-1 W	4-1 W
CRB	0-1 L	0-0 D
America MG	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ceara

DLWWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
05/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
30/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
22/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
08/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
26/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	4-3	3	3	W
23/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
18/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	5	6	D

Gremio Novorizontino

LLWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
21/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
09/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
22/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ceara vs Gremio Novorizontino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gremio Novorizontino win (40%). Probabilities: Ceara 31%, draw 28%, Gremio Novorizontino 40%.

How many goals are expected in Ceara vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Ceara 1.23 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.43), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ceara vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.