Football · Brazil Serie B · 11/09, 02:30
Prediction: Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta
Team pages: Sport Recife · Ponte Preta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Sport Recife2.37
Ponte Preta1.19
1X2
Sport Recife
Draw
Ponte Preta
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Sport Recife
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Ponte Preta
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sport Recife
3–2–1
Ponte Preta
(6 last)
- Ponte Preta1-3Sport Recife
- Ponte Preta0-4Sport Recife
- Sport Recife3-1Ponte Preta
- Sport Recife3-3Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta1-1Sport Recife
- Ponte Preta1-0Sport Recife
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Recife (rating 1509 vs 1388).
- H2H favours Sport Recife: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sport Recife | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.4 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Recife 3–2–1 Ponte Preta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Sport Recife |
| 17/11/24 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Sport Recife |
| 27/07/24 Brazil Serie B | Sport Recife | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Ponte Preta |
| 10/10/23 Brazil Serie B | Sport Recife | 3-3 HT 1-3 | Ponte Preta |
| 11/06/23 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sport Recife |
| 08/09/22 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sport Recife |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 47 |
| 2 | Criciuma | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Gremio Novorizontino | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 23 | 46 |
| 4 | Vila Nova | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 44 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 22 | 44 |
| 6 | CRB | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 42 |
| 7 | Operario PR | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 40 |
| 8 | Atletico GO | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 25 | 40 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 26 | 38 |
| 10 | Nautico | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 28 | 37 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 27 | 37 |
| 12 | Goias | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 36 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 36 |
| 14 | Sao Bernardo SP | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 29 | 32 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 31 |
| 16 | Ceara | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 33 | 31 |
| 17 | Avai | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 34 | 29 |
| 18 | Londrina | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
| 19 | America MG | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 45 | 14 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sport Recife | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| America MG | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Avai | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Vila Nova | 1-0 W | 0-6 L |
| Goias | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Operario PR | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Sport Recife (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sport Recife
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/08 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 28/07 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/07 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 11/07 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
Ponte Preta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 08/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 23/07 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Recife win (63%). Probabilities: Sport Recife 63%, draw 20%, Ponte Preta 17%.
How many goals are expected in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Sport Recife 2.37 · Ponte Preta 1.19), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.