Football · Brazil Serie B · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: Operario PR vs Avai

Team pages: Operario PR · Avai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Operario PR1.47

Avai0.85

1X2

51% 28% 21%

Operario PR Draw Avai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Operario PR 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWLL

Avai 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Operario PR 2–2–2 Avai (6 last)

Avai0-0Operario PR
Operario PR0-0Avai
Avai1-0Operario PR
Avai1-0Operario PR
Operario PR1-0Avai
Operario PR2-1Avai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Operario PR 1524 · Avai 1465

	Operario PR	Draw	Avai
Our model	50%	29%	21%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Operario PR (rating 1524 vs 1465).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Operario PR	Avai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.50
2	4.75 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.70 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:32 +14’	1.70	3.40	4.75
15:32 +15’	1.80▲	3.30▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +1’	1.73	3.51	4.78
01:49	1.75▲	3.55▲	4.86▲
10:36 +1’	1.78▲	3.50▼	4.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Operario PR 2–2–2 Avai

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Avai	0-0 HT 0-0	Operario PR
20/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	0-0 HT 0-0	Avai
17/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-0 HT 1-0	Operario PR
10/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-0 HT 1-0	Operario PR
20/04/24 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	Avai
30/10/21 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-1 HT 0-0	Avai

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	21	11	7	3	23	14	40
2	EC Juventude	21	11	5	5	23	12	38
3	Fortaleza	21	10	5	6	24	20	35
4	Operario PR	21	10	5	6	29	28	35
5	Vila Nova	21	10	4	7	27	25	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	21	9	6	6	32	20	33
7	CRB	21	9	5	7	32	32	32
8	Goias	21	9	5	7	22	26	32
9	Atletico GO	21	8	8	5	24	21	32
10	Sport Recife	21	7	11	3	26	19	32
11	Athletic Club MG	21	7	10	4	21	18	31
12	Sao Bernardo SP	21	8	6	7	31	24	30
13	Botafogo SP	21	7	6	8	26	22	27
14	Nautico	21	7	5	9	25	25	26
15	Cuiaba	21	5	11	5	16	16	26
16	Ceara	21	6	7	8	22	25	25
17	Londrina	21	5	5	11	27	32	20
18	Avai	21	5	5	11	21	28	20
19	America MG	21	2	5	14	15	33	11
20	Ponte Preta	21	2	3	16	15	41	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Operario PR	Avai
Sao Bernardo SP	1-3 L	1-1 D
Athletic Club MG	1-0 W	0-1 L
America MG	1-0 W	2-1 W
Botafogo SP	1-2 L	1-3 L
EC Juventude	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Operario PR

WLWWWWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
28/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
12/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
08/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
27/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
21/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	3-0	3-0	0	3	W
15/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
06/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Avai

LLWLLWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
29/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
12/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
07/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
28/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
21/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
16/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
11/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Operario PR vs Avai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Operario PR win (51%). Probabilities: Operario PR 51%, draw 28%, Avai 21%.

How many goals are expected in Operario PR vs Avai?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Operario PR 1.47 · Avai 0.85), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Operario PR vs Avai?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.