Football · Brazil Serie B · 16/09, 00:30

Prediction: Londrina vs Ponte Preta

Team pages: Londrina · Ponte Preta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Londrina2.04

Ponte Preta0.55

1X2

72% 20% 8%

Londrina Draw Ponte Preta

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Londrina 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLDLW

Ponte Preta 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Londrina 2–1–3 Ponte Preta (6 last)

Ponte Preta1-4Londrina
Ponte Preta2-0Londrina
Londrina0-0Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta1-0Londrina
Ponte Preta1-0Londrina
Londrina3-0Ponte Preta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Londrina 1463 · Ponte Preta 1392

	Londrina	Draw	Ponte Preta
Our model	72%	20%	8%
Market	72%	19%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Londrina (rating 1463 vs 1392).
H2H favours Ponte Preta: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Londrina	Ponte Preta
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.75

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.54 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +6’	1.28	4.75	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:43 +54’	1.31	5.10	8.50
03:43 +112’	1.32▲	5.19▲	8.76▲
05:52 +119’	1.31▼	5.28▲	9.01▲
15:42 +36’	1.31▲	5.22▼	8.97▼
21:26 +66’	1.30▼	5.36▲	9.21▲
02:09 +177’	1.29▼	5.45▲	9.49▲
19:59 +49’	1.28▼	5.54▲	9.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Londrina 2–1–3 Ponte Preta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-4 HT 0-1	Londrina
25/10/25 Brazil Serie C	Ponte Preta	2-0 HT 0-0	Londrina
18/10/25 Brazil Serie C	Londrina	0-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
30/08/25 Brazil Serie C	Ponte Preta	1-0 HT 0-0	Londrina
26/08/23 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-0 HT 1-0	Londrina
14/05/23 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	3-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Londrina	Ponte Preta
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	0-2 L
Operario PR	1-2 L	2-3 L
Ceara	1-2 L	0-2 L
Sport Recife	1-2 L	0-2 L
Goias	0-1 L	1-2 L
Nautico	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Londrina (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Londrina

DLLLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	12	L
02/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
22/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
11/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-4	5	3	L
23/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
18/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Ponte Preta

LLDLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
30/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
23/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
20/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	4	3	L
15/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
08/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
29/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
23/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
18/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Londrina vs Ponte Preta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Londrina win (72%). Probabilities: Londrina 72%, draw 20%, Ponte Preta 8%.

How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Londrina 2.04 · Ponte Preta 0.55), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Londrina vs Ponte Preta?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.