Football · Brazil Serie B · 16/09, 00:30

Prediction: Nautico vs Operario PR

Team pages: Nautico · Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Nautico1.66

Operario PR1.16

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Nautico Draw Operario PR

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Nautico 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWDWWL

Operario PR 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLDDWW

Head-to-head

Nautico 4–1–1 Operario PR (6 last)

Operario PR2-6Nautico
Operario PR1-1Nautico
Operario PR1-0Nautico
Nautico2-0Operario PR
Operario PR1-2Nautico
Nautico5-0Operario PR

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nautico 1534 · Operario PR 1476

	Nautico	Draw	Operario PR
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nautico (rating 1534 vs 1476).
H2H favours Nautico: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nautico	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.92
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.41 ★
2	3.75 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.13

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +1’	1.95	3.20	3.75
07:50 +1’	1.90▼	3.20	3.90▲
09:53 +1’	1.85▼	3.25▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:45 +74’	1.96	3.40	3.96
17:20 +105’	1.97▲	3.36▼	3.97▲
08:38 +76’	1.92▼	3.41▲	4.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nautico 4–1–1 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-6 HT 1-2	Nautico
29/07/23 Brazil Serie C	Operario PR	1-1 HT 1-0	Nautico
06/08/22 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	Nautico
24/04/22 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	2-0 HT 1-0	Operario PR
02/10/21 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-2 HT 1-0	Nautico
03/07/21 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	5-0 HT 2-0	Operario PR

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	27	14	8	5	30	15	50
2	Gremio Novorizontino	27	14	7	6	47	24	49
3	Vila Nova	27	14	5	8	39	30	47
4	Fortaleza	27	13	8	6	30	22	47
5	Criciuma	27	13	8	6	28	21	47
6	Operario PR	27	12	7	8	36	33	43
7	Atletico GO	27	11	10	6	32	26	43
8	CRB	27	12	6	9	40	39	42
9	Sport Recife	27	10	11	6	36	26	41
10	Cuiaba	27	9	12	6	26	21	39
11	Nautico	27	10	7	10	32	30	37
12	Athletic Club MG	27	9	10	8	31	30	37
13	Goias	27	10	6	11	25	33	36
14	Sao Bernardo SP	27	9	8	10	37	31	35
15	Botafogo SP	27	8	7	12	30	32	31
16	Ceara	27	8	7	12	28	35	31
17	Avai	27	8	5	14	28	35	29
18	Londrina	27	6	7	14	32	39	25
19	America MG	27	4	5	18	21	46	17
20	Ponte Preta	27	2	4	21	16	56	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nautico	Operario PR
Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 D	1-3 L
Ponte Preta	1-1 D	3-2 W
Atletico GO	1-1 D	1-3 L
Londrina	2-1 W	2-1 W
CRB	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nautico

LWDDDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
04/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
15/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
09/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
17/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	2	L

Operario PR

DWLLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	4	W
06/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	3	12	W
01/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
23/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
08/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
28/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nautico vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nautico win (47%). Probabilities: Nautico 47%, draw 28%, Operario PR 25%.

How many goals are expected in Nautico vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Nautico 1.66 · Operario PR 1.16), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nautico vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.