Football · Brazil Serie B · 26/07, 21:00

Prediction: Sao Bernardo SP vs Ceara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Sao Bernardo SP1.1

Ceara0.87

1X2

39% 34% 27%

Sao Bernardo SP Draw Ceara

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Bernardo SP 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLDDL

Ceara 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLDDL

Head-to-head

Sao Bernardo SP 0–2–0 Ceara (2 last)

Ceara1-1Sao Bernardo SP
Sao Bernardo SP0-0Ceara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Bernardo SP 1476 · Ceara 1452

	Sao Bernardo SP	Draw	Ceara
Our model	39%	34%	27%
Market	39%	34%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Bernardo SP	Ceara
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.4	1.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X2.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.45 ★
X	2.90 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.77
2	2.90 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +8’	2.50	2.90	2.90
22:33 +1’	2.30▼	2.90	3.20▲
05:20 +3’	2.10▼	3.10▲	3.75▲
06:22 +1’	2.40▲	2.75▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:29	2.59	2.48	3.62
02:30 +2’	2.62▲	2.52▲	3.62
03:26 +1’	2.56▼	2.63▲	3.51▼
05:23 +1’	2.41▼	2.71▲	3.68▲
06:22 +1’	2.37▼	2.73▲	3.73▲
07:19	2.45▲	2.76▲	3.52▼
11:32	2.45	2.77▲	3.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Bernardo SP 0–2–0 Ceara

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	1-1 HT 1-0	Sao Bernardo SP
17/03/26 Copa do Brasil	Sao Bernardo SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Ceara

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	19	9	5	5	21	12	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Atletico GO	19	7	7	5	20	19	28
9	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
10	Sao Bernardo SP	19	7	6	6	25	19	27
11	Athletic Club MG	19	6	9	4	18	17	27
12	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
13	Nautico	19	7	3	9	24	24	24
14	Botafogo SP	19	6	6	7	24	20	24
15	Cuiaba	19	5	9	5	14	14	24
16	Londrina	19	5	5	9	26	27	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Bernardo SP	Ceara
Athletic Club MG	1-2 L	0-0 D
Avai	1-1 D	2-1 W
Criciuma	0-1 L	1-1 D
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-2 L
CRB	3-2 W	0-1 L
Gremio Novorizontino	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Bernardo SP

WDWDLLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
12/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	2-2	2-2	6	4	D
07/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
27/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
21/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
14/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
07/06	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	0	7	W
31/05	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
24/05	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Ceara

LLWDLLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
18/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
05/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
28/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
21/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
16/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
11/06	Avai Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
31/05	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	7	10	L
23/05	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Bernardo SP vs Ceara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Bernardo SP win (39%). Probabilities: Sao Bernardo SP 39%, draw 34%, Ceara 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Bernardo SP vs Ceara?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Sao Bernardo SP 1.1 · Ceara 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo SP vs Ceara?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.