Football · Brazil Serie B · 23/08, 21:00

Prediction: Sao Bernardo SP vs Nautico

Team pages: Sao Bernardo SP · Nautico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Sao Bernardo SP1.4

Nautico1.14

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Sao Bernardo SP Draw Nautico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Bernardo SP 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLWLD

Nautico 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Sao Bernardo SP 1–3–1 Nautico (5 last)

Nautico0-3Sao Bernardo SP
Sao Bernardo SP1-1Nautico
Nautico1-1Sao Bernardo SP
Nautico2-2Sao Bernardo SP
Sao Bernardo SP0-1Nautico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Bernardo SP 1463 · Nautico 1469

	Sao Bernardo SP	Draw	Nautico
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Bernardo SP	Nautico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 6.2	2.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 21:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.34
X	3.10 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.42 ★

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:45 +2’	2.20	3.10	3.20
16:57 +12’	2.20	3.20▲	3.25▲
06:08 +6’	2.25▲	3.20	3.25
07:55 +9’	2.25	3.10▼	3.30▲
11:54 +15’	2.25	3.20▲	3.25▼
16:25 +2’	2.25	3.25▲	3.20▼
23:43 +3’	2.25	3.20▼	3.25▲
21:13 +1’	2.25	3.25▲	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:36	2.13	3.21	3.50
05:53	2.36▲	3.07▼	3.28▼
07:57	2.26▼	3.07	3.47▲
17:06 +3’	2.32▲	3.05▼	3.38▼
21:12 +2’	2.34▲	3.08▲	3.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Bernardo SP 1–3–1 Nautico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	0-3 HT 0-0	Sao Bernardo SP
25/08/25 Brazil Serie C	Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 HT 0-0	Nautico
21/04/24 Brazil Serie C	Nautico	1-1 HT 0-0	Sao Bernardo SP
26/08/23 Brazil Serie C	Nautico	2-2 HT 0-1	Sao Bernardo SP
02/03/23 Copa do Brasil	Sao Bernardo SP	0-1 HT 0-1	Nautico

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	23	12	8	3	25	15	44
2	EC Juventude	23	12	6	5	24	12	42
3	Vila Nova	23	12	4	7	35	25	40
4	Gremio Novorizontino	23	10	7	6	35	20	37
5	Fortaleza	23	10	7	6	25	21	37
6	CRB	23	10	6	7	34	32	36
7	Operario PR	23	10	5	8	30	31	35
8	Sport Recife	23	8	11	4	29	22	35
9	Athletic Club MG	23	8	10	5	24	21	34
10	Atletico GO	23	8	9	6	24	23	33
11	Goias	23	9	5	9	22	28	32
12	Cuiaba	23	7	11	5	20	17	32
13	Sao Bernardo SP	23	8	7	8	32	26	31
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	28	23	31
15	Nautico	23	8	6	9	27	26	30
16	Avai	23	7	5	11	25	30	26
17	Ceara	23	6	7	10	23	29	25
18	Londrina	23	5	6	12	28	34	21
19	America MG	23	2	5	16	16	39	11
20	Ponte Preta	23	2	4	17	16	48	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Bernardo SP	Nautico
Ceara	3-4 L	1-0 W
Avai	1-1 D	0-2 L
Vila Nova	1-2 L	3-4 L
Criciuma	0-1 L	0-0 D
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nautico (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Bernardo SP

LLLDDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
08/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
26/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-4	10	3	L
24/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
12/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	2-2	2-2	6	4	D
07/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
27/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
21/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	7	L

Nautico

LLDLLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
15/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
09/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
17/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
12/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
06/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
21/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-4	3-4	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Bernardo SP vs Nautico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Bernardo SP win (42%). Probabilities: Sao Bernardo SP 42%, draw 29%, Nautico 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Bernardo SP vs Nautico?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Sao Bernardo SP 1.4 · Nautico 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo SP vs Nautico?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.