Football · Brazil Serie B · 11/09, 00:30
Prediction: Sao Bernardo SP vs Londrina
Team pages: Sao Bernardo SP · Londrina
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Sao Bernardo SP1.69
Londrina0.95
1X2
Sao Bernardo SP
Draw
Londrina
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Bernardo SP
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Londrina
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sao Bernardo SP
1–3–1
Londrina
(5 last)
- Londrina1-3Sao Bernardo SP
- Londrina1-1Sao Bernardo SP
- Sao Bernardo SP2-2Londrina
- Sao Bernardo SP0-0Londrina
- Londrina2-0Sao Bernardo SP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Bernardo SP 1502 · Londrina 1427
| Sao Bernardo SP | Draw | Londrina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Bernardo SP (rating 1502 vs 1427).
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Bernardo SP | Londrina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 7.2 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Bernardo SP 1–3–1 Londrina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Brazil Serie B | Londrina | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Sao Bernardo SP |
| 11/10/25 Brazil Serie C | Londrina | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sao Bernardo SP |
| 07/09/25 Brazil Serie C | Sao Bernardo SP | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Londrina |
| 06/05/25 Brazil Serie C | Sao Bernardo SP | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Londrina |
| 19/05/24 Brazil Serie C | Londrina | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sao Bernardo SP |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 47 |
| 2 | Criciuma | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Gremio Novorizontino | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 23 | 46 |
| 4 | Vila Nova | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 44 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 22 | 44 |
| 6 | CRB | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 42 |
| 7 | Operario PR | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 40 |
| 8 | Atletico GO | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 25 | 40 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 26 | 38 |
| 10 | Nautico | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 28 | 37 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 27 | 37 |
| 12 | Goias | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 36 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 36 |
| 14 | Sao Bernardo SP | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 29 | 32 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 31 |
| 16 | Ceara | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 33 | 31 |
| 17 | Avai | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 34 | 29 |
| 18 | Londrina | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
| 19 | America MG | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 45 | 14 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sao Bernardo SP | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Goias | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Nautico | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Botafogo SP | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Ceara | 3-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sao Bernardo SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 20/08 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 15/08 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/07 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Londrina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/08 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 14/07 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sao Bernardo SP vs Londrina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Bernardo SP win (53%). Probabilities: Sao Bernardo SP 53%, draw 27%, Londrina 20%.
How many goals are expected in Sao Bernardo SP vs Londrina?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Sao Bernardo SP 1.69 · Londrina 0.95), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo SP vs Londrina?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.