Football · Brazil Serie B · 29/08, 23:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Cuiaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Botafogo SP1.37

Cuiaba1.01

1X2

43% 31% 26%

Botafogo SP Draw Cuiaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLWWD

Cuiaba 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDWWD

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 1–4–1 Cuiaba (6 last)

Cuiaba1-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP2-2Cuiaba
Cuiaba0-1Botafogo SP
Cuiaba2-0Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP1-1Cuiaba
Botafogo SP0-0Cuiaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1535 · Cuiaba 1511

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Cuiaba
Our model	44%	30%	27%
Market	43%	32%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Cuiaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.3	3.5 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.88

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +2’	2.15	2.88	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 1–4–1 Cuiaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	1-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
19/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	2-2 HT 1-2	Cuiaba
01/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	0-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
06/12/20 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	2-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
01/09/20 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-1 HT 0-1	Cuiaba
23/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Cuiaba

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	24	12	8	4	25	17	44
2	EC Juventude	23	12	6	5	24	12	42
3	Vila Nova	24	12	5	7	35	25	41
4	Gremio Novorizontino	24	11	7	6	39	21	40
5	Fortaleza	24	11	7	6	27	21	40
6	Sport Recife	24	9	11	4	32	22	38
7	CRB	23	10	6	7	34	32	36
8	Operario PR	24	10	6	8	30	31	36
9	Athletic Club MG	24	8	10	6	25	25	34
10	Goias	24	9	6	9	23	29	33
11	Atletico GO	23	8	9	6	24	23	33
12	Cuiaba	24	7	12	5	21	18	33
13	Sao Bernardo SP	24	8	8	8	33	27	32
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	28	23	31
15	Nautico	24	8	7	9	28	27	31
16	Avai	24	8	5	11	27	30	29
17	Ceara	24	7	7	10	25	30	28
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	24	2	5	17	16	42	11
20	Ponte Preta	24	2	4	18	16	50	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Cuiaba
Sao Bernardo SP	1-0 W	2-2 D
America MG	2-1 W	1-0 W
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-1 D
EC Juventude	4-2 W	0-2 L
Londrina	0-0 D	2-2 D
Sport Recife	3-3 D	1-1 D
Ceara	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

WLWDDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
15/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
08/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-2	4	4	W
18/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-3	2	7	D
07/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
01/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
21/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Cuiaba

DWDLLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
09/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
24/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
18/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
12/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	2-2	2-2	7	4	D
03/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
26/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-2	9	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (43%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 43%, draw 31%, Cuiaba 26%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Botafogo SP 1.37 · Cuiaba 1.01), with a 58% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.