Football · Brazil Serie B · 16/08, 23:30

Prediction: America MG vs Athletic Club MG

Team pages: America MG · Athletic Club MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

America MG1.15

Athletic Club MG0.87

1X2

42% 32% 27%

America MG Draw Athletic Club MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDDLWL

Athletic Club MG 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDDWDW

Head-to-head

America MG 2–3–1 Athletic Club MG (6 last)

Athletic Club MG1-1America MG
America MG3-0Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG0-2America MG
America MG0-1Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG1-1America MG
America MG1-1Athletic Club MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America MG 1481 · Athletic Club MG 1486

	America MG	Draw	Athletic Club MG
Our model	41%	33%	26%
Market	42%	31%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours America MG: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Athletic Club MG
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.30 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:30 +10’	2.20	3.00	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +1’	2.23	2.91	3.63
01:39 +1’	2.25▲	2.94▲	3.67▲
05:41	2.14▼	3.04▲	3.86▲
06:31 +1’	2.15▲	3.03▼	3.83▼
14:29 +1’	2.25▲	2.97▼	3.64▼
14:58 +1’	2.25	2.98▲	3.64
04:09 +1’	2.31▲	2.98	3.48▼
17:03	2.30▼	3.00▲	3.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 2–3–1 Athletic Club MG

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 1-0	America MG
11/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro	America MG	3-0 HT 2-0	Athletic Club MG
25/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	0-2 HT 0-0	America MG
08/07/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	0-1 HT 0-1	Athletic Club MG
08/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 0-1	America MG
05/02/22 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro	America MG	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	21	11	7	3	23	14	40
2	EC Juventude	21	11	5	5	23	12	38
3	Fortaleza	21	10	5	6	24	20	35
4	Operario PR	21	10	5	6	29	28	35
5	Vila Nova	21	10	4	7	27	25	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	21	9	6	6	32	20	33
7	CRB	21	9	5	7	32	32	32
8	Goias	21	9	5	7	22	26	32
9	Atletico GO	21	8	8	5	24	21	32
10	Sport Recife	21	7	11	3	26	19	32
11	Athletic Club MG	21	7	10	4	21	18	31
12	Sao Bernardo SP	21	8	6	7	31	24	30
13	Botafogo SP	21	7	6	8	26	22	27
14	Nautico	21	7	5	9	25	25	26
15	Cuiaba	21	5	11	5	16	16	26
16	Ceara	21	6	7	8	22	25	25
17	Londrina	21	5	5	11	27	32	20
18	Avai	21	5	5	11	21	28	20
19	America MG	21	2	5	14	15	33	11
20	Ponte Preta	21	2	3	16	15	41	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Athletic Club MG
Goias	1-0 W	1-1 D
Avai	1-2 L	1-0 W
Ceara	1-1 D	0-0 D
Londrina	1-1 D	0-2 L
Operario PR	0-1 L	0-1 L
Criciuma	0-1 L	2-0 W
Atletico GO	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Club MG (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

LWLLLDDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
24/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
17/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	3	W
09/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	8	1	L

Athletic Club MG

DDLWLDDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
24/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
14/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
08/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/06	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
14/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
11/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Athletic Club MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America MG win (42%). Probabilities: America MG 42%, draw 32%, Athletic Club MG 27%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Athletic Club MG?

The model expects 2.02 goals (America MG 1.15 · Athletic Club MG 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Athletic Club MG?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.