Football · Brazil Serie B · 05/09, 02:30

Prediction: CRB vs America MG

Team pages: CRB · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

CRB1.95

America MG0.73

1X2

65% 23% 12%

CRB Draw America MG

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CRB 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDWLW

America MG 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLLLLW

Head-to-head

CRB 2–1–3 America MG (6 last)

America MG1-2CRB
America MG1-1CRB
CRB1-2America MG
CRB2-1America MG
America MG2-1CRB
America MG1-0CRB

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CRB (rating 1562 vs 1433).
H2H favours America MG: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CRB	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.01

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.46 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.53
X	4.38 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.10
2	6.75 → 6.10▼	Pinn 6.10

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:18 +2’	1.46	4.38	6.75
12:17 +1’	1.53▲	4.10▼	6.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CRB 2–1–3 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-2 HT 1-1	CRB
18/10/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 0-1	CRB
27/06/25 Brazil Serie B	CRB	1-2 HT 1-1	America MG
29/09/24 Brazil Serie B	CRB	2-1 HT 1-1	America MG
15/06/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-1 HT 0-1	CRB
26/12/20 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-0 HT 1-0	CRB

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	24	13	6	5	26	13	45
2	Vila Nova	25	13	5	7	37	25	44
3	Criciuma	25	12	8	5	26	19	44
4	Gremio Novorizontino	25	12	7	6	41	22	43
5	Fortaleza	24	11	7	6	27	21	40
6	CRB	25	11	6	8	37	35	39
7	Atletico GO	25	10	9	6	28	23	39
8	Sport Recife	25	9	11	5	33	24	38
9	Operario PR	24	10	6	8	30	31	36
10	Goias	25	10	6	9	25	30	36
11	Cuiaba	25	8	12	5	23	19	36
12	Nautico	25	9	7	9	30	28	34
13	Athletic Club MG	25	8	10	7	26	27	34
14	Sao Bernardo SP	25	8	8	9	34	29	32
15	Botafogo SP	25	8	7	10	29	28	31
16	Avai	25	8	5	12	27	31	29
17	Ceara	25	7	7	11	25	32	28
18	Londrina	24	5	6	13	29	36	21
19	America MG	25	3	5	17	18	42	14
20	Ponte Preta	25	2	4	19	16	52	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CRB	America MG
Athletic Club MG	2-0 W	1-3 L
Gremio Novorizontino	0-0 D	0-3 L
Avai	1-0 W	1-2 L
Ceara	1-0 W	1-1 D
Goias	2-2 D	1-0 W
Londrina	0-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CRB (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CRB

LDWWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
26/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	8	2	L
21/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
16/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
28/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
23/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
17/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
13/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
04/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-5	11	6	L

America MG

LDDLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CRB vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CRB win (65%). Probabilities: CRB 65%, draw 23%, America MG 12%.

How many goals are expected in CRB vs America MG?

The model expects 2.68 goals (CRB 1.95 · America MG 0.73), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CRB vs America MG?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.