Football · Brazil Serie B · 10/09, 01:30
Prediction: America MG vs Nautico
Team pages: America MG · Nautico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
America MG1.02
Nautico1.29
1X2
America MG
Draw
Nautico
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
America MG
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Nautico
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America MG
3–2–1
Nautico
(6 last)
- Nautico4-0America MG
- Nautico0-0America MG
- America MG2-0Nautico
- America MG1-0Nautico
- Nautico0-0America MG
- America MG2-1Nautico
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nautico (rating 1437 vs 1532).
- H2H favours America MG: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America MG | Nautico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.8 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.8 | 2.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 3–2–1 Nautico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 4-0 HT 2-0 | America MG |
| 12/01/21 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | America MG |
| 10/10/20 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Nautico |
| 12/08/17 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nautico |
| 13/05/17 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | America MG |
| 12/09/15 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Nautico |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 47 |
| 2 | EC Juventude | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 13 | 46 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Gremio Novorizontino | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 22 | 43 |
| 5 | CRB | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 42 |
| 6 | Fortaleza | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 41 |
| 7 | Atletico GO | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 39 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 38 |
| 9 | Nautico | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 28 | 37 |
| 10 | Operario PR | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 37 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 27 | 37 |
| 12 | Goias | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 36 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 36 |
| 14 | Sao Bernardo SP | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 29 | 32 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 31 |
| 16 | Avai | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 31 | 29 |
| 17 | Ceara | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 28 |
| 18 | Londrina | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 29 | 36 | 22 |
| 19 | America MG | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 45 | 14 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | America MG | Nautico |
|---|---|---|
| CRB | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Ponte Preta | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Athletic Club MG | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Botafogo SP | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Avai | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Ceara | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Londrina | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Nautico (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America MG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 25/08 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 21/08 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/07 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Nautico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 09/08 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 17/07 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America MG vs Nautico?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nautico win (41%). Probabilities: America MG 28%, draw 31%, Nautico 41%.
How many goals are expected in America MG vs Nautico?
The model expects 2.32 goals (America MG 1.02 · Nautico 1.29), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in America MG vs Nautico?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.