Football · Brazil Serie A · 24/10, 21:30

Prediction: Internacional vs Botafogo

Team pages: Internacional · Botafogo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Internacional1.45

Botafogo1.08

1X2

45% 28% 28%

Internacional Draw Botafogo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWLWDL

Botafogo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWLLDW

Head-to-head

Internacional 2–1–3 Botafogo (6 last)

Botafogo2-2Internacional
Internacional2-0Botafogo
Botafogo4-0Internacional
Internacional0-1Botafogo
Botafogo1-0Internacional
Internacional3-1Botafogo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional 1469 · Botafogo 1467

	Internacional	Draw	Botafogo
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botafogo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional	Botafogo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	2.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.69
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +3’	2.05	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +21’	1.90	3.73	3.89
17:27 +66’	1.93▲	3.71▼	3.83▼
20:23 +12’	1.94▲	3.69▼	3.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 2–1–3 Botafogo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	2-2 HT 0-0	Internacional
04/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo
12/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	4-0 HT 2-0	Internacional
05/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-1 HT 0-1	Botafogo
20/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	1-0 HT 1-0	Internacional
07/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	3-1 HT 1-0	Botafogo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
5	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
6	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46	44	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
10	Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38	35	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional	Botafogo
Mirassol	0-2 L	0-2 L
Gremio	1-1 D	3-2 W
Chapecoense	2-1 W	1-0 W
Palmeiras	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional

DDDLLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
11/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-3	2-3	7	9	L
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Botafogo

LLLDDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
12/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
08/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
19/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
17/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-3	13	3	L
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Botafogo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional win (45%). Probabilities: Internacional 45%, draw 28%, Botafogo 28%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Botafogo?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Internacional 1.45 · Botafogo 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional vs Botafogo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.