Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 19/10, 17:00

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev · FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4Total

JK Tallinna Kalev2.11

FC Levadia Tallinn U211.89

1X2

43% 22% 35%

JK Tallinna Kalev Draw FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLDLDL

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWDWWW

Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev 2–1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U213-2JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev1-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U213-2JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
JK Tallinna Kalev5-0FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U213-4JK Tallinna Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1456 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1566

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Our model	43%	22%	35%
Market	44%	21%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 4 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (rating 1456 vs 1566).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn U21: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.8	3.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	2.40 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.81 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:34 +44’	2.20	4.10	2.40
16:02 +11’	2.05▼	4.10	2.60▲
06:56 +5’	2.20▲	4.10	2.40▼
10:58 +3’	2.20	4.20▲	2.40
14:01 +2’	2.05▼	4.20	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +50’	2.27	3.76	2.39
09:05 +56’	2.25▼	3.85▲	2.38▼
15:01 +1’	2.27▲	3.92▲	2.40▲
16:01	1.99▼	3.92	2.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 2–1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-2 HT 2-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
31/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-2 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
11/09/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
20/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	5-0 HT 3-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
21/05/21 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-4 HT 1-4	JK Tallinna Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	34	23	5	6	96	42	74
2	Viimsi JK	32	17	5	10	58	32	56
3	FC Elva	33	15	7	11	47	48	52
4	FC Flora Tallinn II	32	15	6	11	73	55	51
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	32	16	2	14	62	55	50
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	31	11	7	13	53	57	40
7	JK Nomme United II	33	11	6	16	53	67	39
8	FC Tallinn	32	9	8	15	41	71	35
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	33	7	5	21	38	80	26

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Viimsi JK	1-2 L	0-5 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-2 D	6-2 W
JK Nomme United II	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tartu JK Welco	1-1 D	0-0 D
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-3 L	2-4 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	1-0 W
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
18/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
10/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
05/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
29/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

WLLWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
09/10	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-1	7	4	W
10/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
04/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	6-2	4	5	W
29/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-4	5	3	L
23/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
15/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	4	9	L
08/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tallinna Kalev win (43%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev 43%, draw 22%, FC Levadia Tallinn U21 35%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model expects 4 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev 2.11 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1.89), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.