Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 23/10, 18:00

Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs JK Tallinna Kalev

Team pages: Tartu JK Welco · JK Tallinna Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Tartu JK Welco2.51

JK Tallinna Kalev1.26

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Tartu JK Welco Draw JK Tallinna Kalev

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Tartu JK Welco 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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JK Tallinna Kalev 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tartu JK Welco 1–1–4 JK Tallinna Kalev (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev1-1Tartu JK Welco
JK Tallinna Kalev2-0Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-0JK Tallinna Kalev
Tartu JK Welco0-4JK Tallinna Kalev
Tartu JK Welco2-3JK Tallinna Kalev
Tartu JK Welco0-1JK Tallinna Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1588 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1441

	Tartu JK Welco	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	64%	19%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1588 vs 1441).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tartu JK Welco	JK Tallinna Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.1	3.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +15’	1.40	4.75	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 1–1–4 JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
09/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-0 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
05/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
15/07/23 Estonia Cup	Tartu JK Welco	0-4 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
31/10/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-3 HT 1-3	JK Tallinna Kalev
12/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	34	23	5	6	96	42	74
2	Viimsi JK	33	18	5	10	61	32	59
3	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	33	17	2	14	64	56	53
4	FC Elva	33	15	7	11	47	48	52
5	FC Flora Tallinn II	32	15	6	11	73	55	51
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	32	11	7	14	54	59	40
7	JK Nomme United II	33	11	6	16	53	67	39
8	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	41	74	35
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	33	7	5	21	38	80	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tartu JK Welco	JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Nomme United II	4-3 W	1-2 L
FC Tallinn	7-0 W	1-1 D
FC Elva	4-0 W	1-0 W
Viimsi JK	2-0 W	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-3	2	3	W
15/10	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	4-0	7-0	5	6	W
09/10	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
10/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
10/10	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
18/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
10/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
05/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
29/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (64%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 64%, draw 19%, JK Tallinna Kalev 17%.

How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Tartu JK Welco 2.51 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.