Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 19/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs Viimsi JK

Team pages: FC Tallinn · Viimsi JK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

FC Tallinn1.39

Viimsi JK2.35

1X2

21% 20% 58%

FC Tallinn Draw Viimsi JK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLDWL

Viimsi JK 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 1–5 Viimsi JK (6 last)

Viimsi JK1-2FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn0-2Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK5-1FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn1-2Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK2-1FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn0-2Viimsi JK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1429 · Viimsi JK 1534

	FC Tallinn	Draw	Viimsi JK
Our model	21%	21%	58%
Market	21%	20%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viimsi JK (rating 1429 vs 1534).
H2H favours Viimsi JK: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	Viimsi JK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	2.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	2.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.7	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.50

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.21
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	1.44 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.54 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:56 +21’	4.75	4.75	1.44
16:07 +8’	4.75	4.75	1.45▲
07:59 +3’	4.10▼	4.50▼	1.55▲
11:00 +2’	4.00▼	4.50	1.57▲
11:55 +7’	4.20▲	4.50	1.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +50’	4.31	4.45	1.49
07:56 +5’	3.82▼	4.17▼	1.60▲
10:14 +47’	3.84▲	4.18▲	1.59▼
11:40 +22’	4.13▲	4.33▲	1.53▼
16:00 +2’	4.21▲	4.43▲	1.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 1–0–5 Viimsi JK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Tallinn
24/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	0-2 HT 0-2	Viimsi JK
16/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	5-1 HT 0-1	FC Tallinn
02/11/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-2 HT 1-1	Viimsi JK
14/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Tallinn
17/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	0-2 HT 0-0	Viimsi JK

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	34	23	5	6	96	42	74
2	Viimsi JK	32	17	5	10	58	32	56
3	FC Elva	33	15	7	11	47	48	52
4	FC Flora Tallinn II	32	15	6	11	73	55	51
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	32	16	2	14	62	55	50
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	31	11	7	13	53	57	40
7	JK Nomme United II	33	11	6	16	53	67	39
8	FC Tallinn	32	9	8	15	41	71	35
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	33	7	5	21	38	80	26

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	Viimsi JK
Tartu JK Welco	0-7 L	0-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Elva	1-1 D	5-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-5 L	5-0 W
JK Nomme United II	1-1 D	0-1 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	0-1 L	2-1 W
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Viimsi JK (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tallinn

DLDLLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-4	0-7	2	6	L
10/10	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-5	6	4	L
03/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
29/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Viimsi JK

WWLWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
17/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	13	4	L
13/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
10/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	5-0	6	4	W
03/09	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	7	6	L
29/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
24/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
21/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-2	8	9	L
15/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	4	9	W
08/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs Viimsi JK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Viimsi JK win (58%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 21%, draw 20%, Viimsi JK 58%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs Viimsi JK?

The model expects 3.74 goals (FC Tallinn 1.39 · Viimsi JK 2.35), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs Viimsi JK?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.